The Study About Theory And Its Application Of Successive Sampling Survey

This paper breaks through the research areas of traditional theory of sampling survey and extends from the traditional one-time cross-section survey to the successive study of the longitudinal sampling survey.Therefore,successive changing population would be studied on the dimension of time as an interrelated organic whole and ultimate goal is to produce statistical data of time series which can measure the change and development of the population more accurately and would be provided to socio-economic scholars for a more accurate analysis of the socio-economics.Firstly,this paper forms the theoretical research system of successive sampling survey under theoretical study,that is,the system of the design of rotation scheme and estimation methods under rotating panel survey and the system of time series estimation methods under successive sampling survey.(1) Under the most frequently used rotating panel survey,this paper devises two-way balanced one-level rotation and three-way balanced multi-level rotation,and then puts forward the methods of generalized composite estimation and fixed window best linear estimation.Based on balanced rotation scheme,the methods about successive sampling estimation not only obtain the formulas of variance and bias of the estimators exactly,but also get a set of optimal weighting coefficients which make the overall accuracy of estimation under multi-objective survey reach the most and take into account the estimated amount of all types of estimators at the same time.(2) This paper also breaks the limitations of the traditional composite estimation theories and studies another set of estimation methods which introduce the theories of time series analysis and Kalman filter estimation.According to the pattern of changes and the trend of development under different populations,the estimation methods establish various time series models and get the estimators about population characteristics by using sophisticated time series estimation methods.This system of estimation methods is applicable not only to rotating panel survey,but also to repeated survey and panel survey.Secondly,this paper forms the applied research system of successive sampling survey under applied study.In order to make the scientific theories of successive sampling survey apply to the practice of China's sampling survey successfully,this paper proposes relevant reforms from the organizational system,methods of survey and other aspects,and then builds a system about successive sampling survey adapted to the management system of Chinese government.More accurate statistical data of time series would be produced through this system which could reflect the dominant position of the regular sampling survey better.Furthermore,this paper builds a system of successive sampling survey in rural areas as an example of China's rural reform on statistical survey.The applied research system outlines the overall framework and thoughts how to apply the theories of successive sampling survey generally.