Research On Macroeconomic Characters In China Since 1978

In reform period China's economy appears 'Four High and One Low' typical character, which exhibits high growth rate, high saving rate,low consumption rate, high investment rate and high foreign reserve rate recently. In 21st century, global imbalance is becoming apparently. Especially after the U.S subprime crisis has evolved the global financial crisis in 2007,each countries was compelled to make necessary adjustment to cope with the challenge, and China among them has no different from them because China has embraced the globalization process. Are these typical characters good for China? What is the reason for these shaping? If they are no good for China, what is the degree of disharmony? How we should choice the time, path and degree for this adjustment process? It's the major purpose of this dissertation to answer the above questions because all of them have important theoretical and practical sense.The typical characters of China economy is firstly analyzed in reform period in this dissertation, and some typical facts about macro economy's in developed countries were concluded. Next we evaluate the relative literature from the four different views which are China's economy growth mode, the determinants of saving rate, the balance of global saving and investment and the sudden increase of foreign reserve, and we make a basic judge about the characters of China's macro economy. In this dissertation we make a detailed analysis of the whole character about China's economy by theoretical and empirical methods, and stress the fitness of 'Four High and One Low' phenomenon, cause of formation, influence and adjustment process.The analysis of the fitness about'Four High and One Low' phenomenon is mostly the theoretical reflection from the view of economic institution transition. They include the measure of social optimal investment rate, saving rate, and consumption rate etc; the export dependent ratio of China's economy based on input-output tables of China; and the analysis of social optimal foreign reserve in China based on financial stability frame.The research of 'Four High and One Low' cause of formation focus on the saving behavior of the household enterprise and the government and how the change of distribution share of national income in economic growth process has influenced the transform efficiency of saving to investment. We investigate the mechanism from real exchange rate to capital accumulation to high saving rate and high economic growth rate. And we develop a general equilibrium model which include the financial sector to explain how financial development represented by the improvement of the banking efficiency accelerate the capital formation and investment by increasing the capital expenditure. We analyze the influence of financial development to saving-investment transform by researching the relation of financial deepening, capital accumulation and economic growth in China. We explain the reason of sudden increase of foreign reserve in East Asia by using competitive foreign reserve theory and some empirical multinational proof.We make use of internal and external balance theory in open macro economics to analyze the influence of the status quo to the whole economy. And we develop the imbalance of the saving and investment from static analysis to dynamic one, explores the paths of the internal and external balance in reform period, analyzes the relation of economic condition and economic policy. They include the test of Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis using China's provinces data and export-led character of China's economy using panel Granger cause test from both the demand and the supply side also using province data in China.The analysis of rebalancing China's economy and adjustment include the valuation effect channel in short run, RMB exchange rate adjustment channel in middle run and the trade channel in long run. In this part, we put forward an appropriate frame to realize the rebalance of China's economy based on DFG(2005) and Ball (2009).Base on the above analysis, this dissertation focuses on how to propose a suitable strategy to realize the dynamic benign adjustment and the transform from saving to investment. And finally, some policy suggestions are proposed as how to accelerate the development of China's economy rapidly and healthily.