Cost Analysis And Bidding Strategy For Generation Enterprises Under Electricity Market

Based on enterprise needs and keeping a foothold in market environment, this paper proposed price forecasting which relied on power market environment for pricing analysis, and forecasted the profits supplemented by the cost decomposition to get the program of bidding strategy. This paper consists of five aspects of research content. First, apply the electricity market theory of the typical operating mode, analyzed the impact on the power enterprises from the three areas that, the China's practice of electricity market reform in recent years, the market model and affection which China's power enterprises may faced, as well as the development in the future electricity market. Second, use the advanced and scientific technology of data prediction to study the long-term and short-term predicted problems of electricity market prices. Third, combine with the cost management status of China's power generation enterprise to study the practical techniques and methods for generation enterprises'cost analysis. Fourthly, based on the first three research outputs, propose a variety of bidding strategy for electric power generating enterprises in different market environment. Fifth, based on the first four researches, use the computer information management technology to develope a design concept for power enterprises'bidding auxiliary decision support system.This paper constructed the framework systems of cost for power generation enterprise, at the same time, focused on studying the production cost model for power generation enterprise based on random simulation, and approved the reliability of the cost for power generation enterprises. On the other hand, the cost probability distribution function for power generation enterprises was detailed studied from a theoretical point of view, analyzed the effects on cost curve by the different cost structures.Compared the commonly used long-term and short-term price forecasting techniques, this paper analyze the respective factors in long-term and short-term price forecasting. Through the research and analysis, due to the long-term price forecasts, this paper proposed the annual electricity price forecasting methods based on expert's prediction method, as well as the monthly price forecasting methods based on regression analysis and fuzzy regression. For the short-term electricity price forecasts, it proposed the inspected standards applicable for any model methods, then proposed the electricity price forecasting model which is based on the principles of time-series including confidence intervals ARIMA and based on the neural network principle as well as wavelet analysis and processing.This paper summarized the status of bidding strategy for power generation enterprises, proposed the overall research ideas of bidding strategy. Through research analysis, proposed the multi-segment bidding strategies based on key indicators and the collaboration bidding strategy for power generation enterprise. Combined with the policy guidance of energy-saving emission reduction, and analyzed by varieties of models, some corresponding bidding strategy proposals for power generation enterprises were given. On this basis, it proposed the basic system, the basic mechanism, the basic strategies and tools of collaboration bidding strategy for generation enterprise groups.