Research On Evaluation And Decision Of Small Amount Loans For Farmers Based On Support Vector Machines

This dissertation establishes the evaluation and decision system of small amount loans for farmers based on support vector machines. It includes the credit evaluation system of small amount loans for farmers and the decision-making system of small amount loans for farmers.The credit evaluation system of small amount loans for farmers is to evaluate the credit risk, considering loan repayment capacity, willing to pay, macro environment and guarantee and joint guarantee adding up to five primary standards.The decision-making system of small amount loans for farmers is to determine a customer acceptable price, considering deposit interest rates, expenditure rates, expected default loss rate and the target profit.There are three reasons why evaluation and decision of small amount loans for farmers is a burning question. Firstly, credit evaluation is the subject of ancient and modern. Also credit evaluation of small amount loans for farmers is serious. Because there are several characteristics of small amount loans for farmers, such as farmers spread, a small line of credit and the incomplete financial information, the existing research can not distinguish default and non-default significantly, or even most research found that the default customers correspond to the higher credit scores.Secondly, the loan pricing model and theory is one of three advanced finance topics. And the loan pricing problem of farmers' is an important area to improvement or explore. The reasonable prices of small amount loans to farmers will help farmer to improve the financing status and getting loans, to promote the development of farmers. Therefore,the loan pricing problem of farmers' is not only a commercial bank issue,but also a very important social issue.Thirdly, the loan problem of farmers'need to be solved, that the proportion is up to 63.91 of the total population. Small amount loan is an import financing method in helping low-income expanding their production and operation in developing countries. Rural population is huge in China. Proportion of the total population accounted for 63.91.The scientific and rational evaluation-decision system for farmers'small amount loans will not only plays an important role in solving the problem of household loans, increasing peasant income, poverty alleviation, etc., but also solve the problem of countryside, agriculture and farmers.This dissertation includes five chapters. The first chapter analyzes the topic basis, the relative research development, methods, content and so on. The second chapter expounds the construction of the index system of small amount loans for farmers based on comprehensive discriminate capacity. The third chapter discusses the credit evaluation model based on the best kernel function. The forth chapter establishes the loan pricing model based on this efficiency interval. In the fifth chapter come the conclusion and the prospects.The major work of this dissertation is as follows:(1) This dissertation constructs the index system of small amount loans for farmers that reflect the requirements of scientific development.Considering the high-frequency indicator of relevant research and the credit data for farmer of a large national commercial bank in China, this dissertation set up the index system of small amount loans for farmers based on partial correlation and comprehensive discriminate capacity. The index system of small amount loans for farmers includes 25 indicators.Those 25 indicators can distinguish default and non-default significantly.The operating net income of the lender, the ratio of annual net income to per capita GDP, Families daily living expenses reflect farmers' solvency.Have not repaid bank borrowing reflects the debt situation of farmers. The relationship among the joint guarantee group members and the strength of the guarantors reflect the influence of Guarantee and joint guarantee standard to farmers' solvency. Per capita net income of rural households, regional GDP growth rate, and the Engel coefficient index reflect the influence of macro environment to farmers' solvency.(2) Based on the index system of small amount loans for farmers, the credit evaluation model based on the best kernel function is established.Firstly, the credit risk is evaluated from three levels, such as the breach of contract or not, the evaluation score of credit risk, the loss given default. Secondly, by determining the critical point through comparing the credit evaluation of different customers, the established credit risk evaluation system of small amount loans for farmers is not only used to credit risk evaluation but also to determination.The results for one of national biggest banks showed that:loaning to the customer of BB grade and above can achieve profit balance.(3) The loan pricing model based on the interval efficiency is established.Taking deposit interest rates, expenditure rates, expected default loss rate, the target profit as the input, the loan interest rate as the output, the loan pricing model based on the interval efficiency is established using support vector machine regression algorithm.Considering the price can be accepted by clients, this dissertation takes the interval into the loan pricing model and establishes the loan pricing model based on the interval efficiency. The dissertation determined the optimal kernel function and the optimal kernel parameters by comparing the efficiency interval in different kernel function and kernel parameters and the acceptable efficiency interval of farmers'.Then the loan price is determined. It solves the loan pricing problem that considering the price can be accepted by clients.