From The Perspective Of Empirical Analysis Of Credit Causes High M2/GDP

High“M2/GDP” will not only make people produce excessive inflation expectations,even to the outbreak of the financial crisis concerns,At the same time also reflect some problems and financial reform is lagging behind the existence of the financial structure of our country.Therefore,analysis and explore the causes of high m2 / GDP can not only for people to a correct understanding of the status of China's currency in circulation and management to provide the reference,or is out of questions,And the path to clear the financial reform and the main target.It is also the urgent need to address the issue of financial research.From the economics meaning,drop GDP/ loans is the main reason caused high M2/GDP.therefore,reasons for the analysis of M2/GDP" mainly from the perspective of the effect of higher loan.First of all,at the macro level,the output and demand of the formation of GDP/ loans dropped two aspects.From the output point of view,the capital output ratio continued to decline(ICOR increase)is responsible for "GDP/" loans drop.But after 2009,the investment to capital transformation in the formation of a large number of funds precipitation,"GDP/" loans also played a role in promoting the reduction.From the demand point of view,because of China's consumption rate is low,the investment multiplier has been at a low level,and sometimes also show a downward trend,which in the demand on the inhibition effect of output of the loan.Secondly,through the selection of sample provinces,the causes of “GDP/ loans” decline makes an empirical analysis of provincial level data.Conclusion the developed provinces such as Jiangsu,the value of ICOR was significantly higher,while Beijing investment precipitation,the underdeveloped status ICOR is generally high,and there is the phenomenon of financial repression in the low level of the use of credit funds.Thirdly,using the data of Shanghai City,the consumer loans,especially mortgage demand creation has been carried on the empirical analysis.The conclusion pointed out that consumer loan demand creation coefficient has the characteristics of instability,the reason is consumer loan demand creation coefficient is restricted by the consumption of the equilibrium of supply and demand,but also affected by a variety of factors can change the consumption expenditure.Finally,the paper discusses the Countermeasures under the new normal high M2/GDP solutions and commercial banks in the credit management.