Research On Intra-industry Trade In Agri-products Between Fujian And Taiwan

In 40's and 50's of Last century, Economist had found a phenomena that is difficult to be explain by traditional theory about comparative advantage, that is, some developed countries frequently import or export products under the same industry one another, the phenomena was treated as an intra-industry trade. Hence, Economists loosened the hypothesis about traditional trade theory, then putted forward a new theory that include scale ecnomic and imperfect competition to explain the new trade phenomena, from the location, borned the new trade theory. The new trade theory did not give up the traditional trade theory, but it enomously expand the traditional one. Initially the economists found the intra-industry trade in manufactured goods trade, hence primacily it paid little attention on explaining agri-products intra-industry trade. Recently some experts began to research on agri-product intra-industry trade, they found that agri-product intra-industry trade predominate some positions in international agri-products trade, have broken out the limitations of inter-industry trade. Above mentioned, all show us that agri-product international trade lead to international division of labour to profoundly change in agricultural scope. Actually, FuJian and TaiWan belong to the same country,but out of historical cause, FuJian and TaiWan classed into the different customs area, so agri-products trade between FuJian and TaiWan must obey the rule and convention of international trade.The trade pattern between FuJian and TaiWan essentially is a new trade pattern, the new trade pattern contain "petty trade" between FuJian and TaiWan and etc. Then is there intra-industry trade in agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan? How scale? Why? What is the determineant factor? The research on those questions can help us to find the regular of agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan, to position the trade between FuJian and TaiWan, to point out influencing factor, to make polices intentionally. All of these take on great theoretical significantance. At the same time, to make the questions clear can benefit to consummate agri-product trade policy, to help FuJian adjust agricultural industrial structure, to realize agricultural modernization, to push FuJian and TaiWan together striving for the world market, to realize complementing adisvantage and a win-win situation, to decrease reciprocal competition.All of these take on important realistic significantance. So this dissertation stress on research on the situation and the determineant factors of intra-industry trade between FuJian and TaiWan deeply.First of all, the dissertation entirly set forth historical course and the mutual competing and complementary relations of agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan. The agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan have underwent three historical phrase, which respectively are the exploreing beginning trade period,fluctuating developing period and the persistent-overheating developing period, the period from 1996 to 2009 belong to the last two periods.So the scale of the aggregate agri-product trade flow between FuJian and TaiWan constantly enlarge,the share of its aggregate trade flow on TaiWan and FuJian's international agri-product trade and agri-product trade between the two sides of the TaiWan straits has shown a gradual expanding trend.The degree of FuJian's agri-product trade depending on TaiWan's and of TaiWan's agri-product trade depending on FuJian's gradually improved, FuJian's trade surplus toward TaiWan of agri-product trade increasingly expanded.On the basis of analysising the trade flow and historical course of agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan, in terms of the competing relations of agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan,the dissertation explored the index of similarity of Taiwan and FuJian exporting agri-products, of revealed comparative advantage(RCA), and examined their variation trend, then Taiwan and FuJian's exporting agri-products is to some extent ascertained to be taken on competing relations, their competition began to ascend in recent year, the degree of similarity of exporting agri-products increased in various degrees,but Taiwan and FuJian both sustained some agri-product in comparative advantage.Trade specialization cofficient(TSC) and complementarity index(CI) of agri-products between Taiwan and FuJian for 14 years is analyzed, and obtaining their value each year and variation trend. By above the cofficient and index, the dissertation find that agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian is possessed of complementarity relationship, the conclusion is that complementarity of intra-industry agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian is lower than complementarity of inter-industry agri-products trade. However, through intense complementarity relationship of agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian, the dissertation find that the dependence on FuJian's agri-product of TaiWan's agri-products trade is stronger than the dependence on TaiWan's agri-products of FuJian's agri-products trade.Followed by researching the level (intensity) of agri-product intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian. In terms of harmonized commodity description and coding system(HS),dividing the commodity into chapter,class,the whole,the dissertation analysis the situation of agri-product intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian in deepth, by calculating the GL index, Briilhart marginal intra-industry trade index and Thom&McDowell marginal intra-industry trade index including horizontal intra-industry trade(HIIT) and vertical intra-industry trade(VIIT) index. There is intra-industry trade and inter-industry trade of agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian, the level of the whole agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is lower, so endowment of agricultural resources is the base of agricultural production and division of labour between Taiwan and FuJian. Except that aquatic-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian relativly steady, the proportion of the other agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian is bigger, the level of agri-products intra-industry trade is lower, on the contrary, the proportion of the other agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian is smaller, the level of agri-products intra-industry trade is higher, the weighted level of the whole agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is more lower. From agri-products asa whole,the Briilhart marginal intra-industry trade index between Taiwan and FuJian has some fluctuations, but the wave amplitude is not wide except for a few years. In the past 14years, in general, the value of the Brulhart marginal intra-industry trade index has been less than 0.5,indicating that the increments of agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian are mainly from inter-industry trade,instead of intra-industry trade. The results of HIIT and VIIT reveal that the increments of agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian are mainly from the increase in VIIT.Thirdly, on the basis of the generalization and summarizing up the results of previous research into the determinent factor of intra-industry trade, from empirical analysis, the determinent factor of intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is examined. First, takeing advantage of descriptive analysis, in terms of the determinate mechanism of intra-industry trade, the cause of agri-products intra-industry trade coexsiting with agri-products inter-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian and the low level of agri-products intra-industry trade is explored,by comparing the condition of FuJian's agricultural production factor,demand,policy,difference of agri-products and etc with Taiwan's. It show that the supply of agricultural production factor take effect on agri-products production structure, and then the variation of growth rate of agricultural production factor influence the mode of export and import; such the income per capita as demanding factor,they influence consumption pattern, and then influenc intra-industry trade; the related policy of the two sides of the TaiWan straits limite the development of agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian. So agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian coexsit with agri-products inter-industry trade and the level of agri-products intra-industry trade is low. Second, the economtretic model is established to analyze the determinent factor affecting the intense of intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian, which include ECM cointegration regression model,classical model of multiple regression,Granger causality test and cointegration test. The relatived indicators and their proxy of determinent factor of agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is looked for. The ECM cointegration regression model isestablished to analyze the factors affecting the level of GL agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian. Moreover, because of such proxy variable as the index of the difference of GDP between Taiwan and FuJian,the total population of Taiwan and FuJian indicating population scale,the mean value of GDP between Taiwan and FuJian indicating mean market size is rejected by The ECM cointegration regression model, in order to analyze their influence on the level of GL agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian, Granger causality test and cointegration test is came to use. At the same time, the annul increments of the factors affecting the level of GL agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is known as the factors affecting the level of Brulhart marginal intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry tradeand vertical intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian, and are analyzed through classical model of multiple regression, the later, in fact, is dynamic analysis of the affecting factors.Finally, on the basis of above analysis, the conclusion of this dissertation is generalized. According to the conclusion and analysis of this dissertation, combining those with the theory of economic integration, the fields,basis and approaches of (to) Agricultural cooperation is pointed out. At last, the mearsure and countermearsure is put forward to adjust and promote agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian, to improve the level of agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian.