Study On Planning And Implementing Management For Hainan CNG Vehicle Program

Natural gas as a clean energy is favored by more and more people. However the management of compressed natural gas vehicle program is still a problem to be resolved.This dissertation deals with CNG vehicle program management life cycle, mainly on three stages: planning management, implementing management and post-evaluation management, several management methods and study models related in each stage were explored. In the planning and implementing management, CNG vehicle population prediction model and layout of gas station is established, and project schedule management is also studied from life-cycle view. In the post–evaluation management, CNG vehicle program post-evaluation index system is built and comprehensive evaluation model is studied based on fuzzy matter-element analysis theory. At last, management of Hainan CNG vehicle program was analyzed from planning, implementing and post-evaluation, and improvement suggestions are proposed.The main contributions of this dissertation include:(1)With a combination of construction and operation stages in project life cycle, gas filling station project schedule was studied, and a fuzzy dependent-chance programming model was established. A monkey algorithm based simulation method to the model was designed, and used to a filling station project schedule numerical simulation.(2)According to the characteristics of CNG vehicle program, transportation costs, CNG vehicle population and gas station space are selected as the main decision variable in the process of station layout. Simulated annealing algorithm based on simulation method is designed in the model optimization, and applied to Hainan CNG station layout problem.(3)In view of the characteristics of natural gas vehicle program, the contents of the post-evaluation are analyzed from five aspects: implementation process, economics and finance, safety, environmental effects, and sustainability. Based on this analysis, a three-layer post-evaluation index system is established. This newly-designed index system not only includes the evaluation for implementation process, finance and sustainability in general project post-evaluation, but also highlights the characteristics of natural gas vehicle program in aspects of safety, environmental protection and energy conservation. (4)In view of the uncertainty and fuzzy of indexes for evaluating natural gas vehicle program, this paper builds natural gas vehicle post-evaluation model based on fuzzy matter-element method, and applies this model to Hainan natural gas vehicle program.