Reducing Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Self-selection Of Game Research And Empirical Analysis

So far global climate change became the most significant and the most serious environmental problems for human. At present,the trend of global warming accelerate. All of countries cooperate imperatively to reduce global greenhouse gas on mitigating climate change in the world. Cooperation is divided into three levels:ideological consensus, action of consensus,operating consensus.The UNCCC marks have reached an ideological consensus,which the UN general assembly passed in 1992.The Kyoto protocol marks the beginning of action of consensus; which passed in 1997 and took effect in 2005.The current cooperation debate focused on action of consensus and operating consensus.That is,Each country's political will, economic benefit and scientific cognition influence, interrelated to each other behind the Kyoto era in the process of negotiating cooperation.Various interest groups which are formed equilibrium by different countries how self-interest appeal by game, which become the key to reach new cooperating agreement.The thesis,cooperation based on the global greenhouse gas emission of the natural attribute and social attribute of possibility,with limited rationality hypothesis and a characteristic of opportunism behavior of individuals;In the framework of the theory of self-selection,cooperative game as a starting point and reputation for stimulation, analysis of each behavior individual with contingency commitment of contingency strategy passed two layers of game of self-selection,achieving an equilibrium and forming ideological consensus,action of consensus and operating consensus.Cooperation achieve optimal agreement and transfer payments to solve credible commitment's problems by concessions game and mutual supervision's problems by supervising form,which build the game model of self-selection.Then, as the research object,empirical analysis verify credible commitment of China and it is to speak the truth from revealing mechanism. All of countries cooperate internationally for the reasonable utilizing greenhouse gas emissions of space in the world,and promote economic development mode to transform a low carbon to realize the sustainable development of human society.In the first place, environmental and economic relationship with for framework expatiate on environmental problems of the economic root-- Externality problems and public goods attribute, and take measures to overcome market failure and government failure to achieve the purpose of coordinated development of economy and environment. Because the space of greenhouse gas emissions belongs to global public resources, greenhouse gases discharge unduly.Greenhouse gas of supply over "free-riding"and consumption of negative economic externalities have governed to reduce global greenhouse gas mainly through taxation, unambiguous property,selective incentive, etc.Thus,achievement suppress a non-competitive and increase exclusive of greenhouse gas emissions. At present, cooperation and research experiences three stages to include ideas consensus, action of consensus, and the formed operating consensus. now cooperation argue centered on action of consensus and the formed operating consensus, and studies focus on action of consensus and the formed operating consensus.In the next place, analysis spread out two layers of game of self-selection. First, the global greenhouse gas emission of the natural attribute of possibility exists net increase of zero,and social attribute produce cooperative game from the tit for tat strategy of participants.Second, in situation of asymmetric information, it is for participants to analyze the static and dynamic of cooperative game that explain a binding agreement to make cooperation to reach the individual rationality and collective rationality. Third, two layers of game of self-selection analyze that introduce more close the analysis method of reality to base on limited rationality hypothesis and a characteristic of opportunism behavior of individuals and in the framework of the theory of self-selection.Game analyze optimal agreement and transfer payments to reach reputation for the positive stimulation for agreement to bind and transfer payment of a bayesian equilibrium. Through reputation model and concessions game analyze credible commitment's problems,A country would promise to bear a certain limit of share.And game of mutual supervision analyze mutual supervision's problems to conclude that the two countries exert oneself to reduce greenhouse gas emission in the coincidental influence each other and in the invalid supervision, A country work the high degree of hard,and in the effective supervision, B country supervise more effectively. Fourth,intuitive description process game model of self-selection to reduce emission to achieve the Linda's configuration of the condition, which meet the collective rationality and the individual rationality to reach the pareto optimality.Fifth, study form principle of revealing mechanism and analysis speak the truth of the dominant strategy of participants,which highlight revealing mechanism to solve the importance of credible commitment's problems and mutual supervision's problems.In the end, as the research object,empirical analysis, situational analysis and Monte Carlo simulation verify the credible commitment of China.First, empirical analysis achieve three conclusions for annual data of China from 1978 to 2009.Conclusion one, the CO2 emissions and GDP is long-run equilibrium,economic growth promote the increasing CO2 emissions, which is the important influence factors of CO2 emissions. Conclusion two, CO2 emissions, population, energy intensity, per capita GDP and urbanization level is a long-run equilibrium,which are coincidental to drive CO2 emissions. And process of economic growth transform from extensive to intensive and energy saved reduced actively CO2 emissions.Conclusion three, CO2 emissions intensity, population, energy intensity, per capita GDP and urbanization level is a long-run equilibrium,and Population and per capita GDP reverse effect for CO2 emissions intensity,and energy intensity and urbanization level are coincidental to drive CO2 emissions intensity.The positive research indicate that it is for China to adjust and optimize economic structure, to change the energy structure and to improve energy efficiency, and energy saved reduced actively CO2 emissions intensity. Only, urbanization drive CO2 emissions increased, and promote the rising CO2 emissions.Second, situational analysis and Monte Carlo simulation forecast to duly realize CO2 emissions intensity China in 2020,which reduce 40%～45% or higher to contrast 2005.the conclusion explain that commitment of China is a credible commitment and it is to speak the truth from revealing mechanism.Then,all of countries cooperate internationally for the reasonable utilizing greenhouse gas emissions of space in the world,and to reduce emission to achieve the Linda's configuration of the condition, which meet the collective rationality and the individual rationality.