Research On REITs Value Assessment Based On Monte Carlo Simulation Illustrated By The Example Of Penghua Qianhai Vanke

The real estate industry is the mainstay of the economy and the hot spot for investors.With the development of international real estate investment trusts,China also began to enter the real estate investment trust industry in 2002.Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs)began to enter the public eye,and people began to pay attention to REITs.In China,the financing methods of real estate enterprises are fixed.Bank credit is the main way to raise funds besides self-financing,In fact,most of the self-raised funds come from bank loans,so most of the sources of funds of real estate enterprises in China come from bank loans,which reflects the drawbacks of real estate financing in China.However,the application of bond financing in China is very small,so the emergence of real estate trusts has brought a new way of real estate with the help of financial instruments.Real Estate Investment Trust(REIT)has both real estate and financial attributes.Both investors and operators need strong knowledge reserves,so it has become the research object of scholars from all walks of life.The proliferation of REITs is bound to create valuation problems.Both for investors,managers and operators,the value of REITs plays an important role in their investment decisions and business decisions.Therefore,this paper starts from this background to study the real estate investment trust fund.This paper firstly analyzes the definition of REITs and the development of China real estate investment trust fund.Most domestic scholars study REITs from the perspective of risk analysis,so this paper evaluates REITs from the perspective of asset evaluation.At the end of the second chapter,the method of REITs value evaluation are discussed.The third chapter discusses the traditional income method and analyzes the uncertain factors in the REITs value evaluation,and then introduces Monte Carlo simulation to improve the income method.Penghua qianhai vanke REITs is the first public fund that invests in real estate projects in China,which is also of representative significance in the development history of China's real estate investment trust fund.The fund was listed in 2015,and the corresponding analysis data is relatively comprehensive.Therefore,it is selected as the case for analysis in this paper.In this paper,the annual report of penghua qianhai REITs was analyzed.The income method was used to analyze and evaluate the penghua qianhai vanke REITs,fixed investment income,various expenses and equity resale,and then the net value of the fund of penghua qianhai vanke REITs was evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and improved income method.The study of this paper shows that both the traditional income method and the improved income method of Monte Carlo simulation can estimate the value of penghua qianhai REITs.Both methods are feasible,and the evaluation results of the two methods are higher than the actual value,indicating that the fund has a certain investment value and reflects the good income capacity of the fund.But the traditional method of income is the value of a single,and Monte Carlo simulation to improve the income method can be assessed to a value range,from the confidence interval,minimum,maximum factors such as the analysis of investment value,assessment report users provide certain auxiliary,in order to choose the optimal decision scheme.From the perspective of the future trend of qianhai vanke REITs,the results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation are more close to the future price trend of the fund.Therefore,it shows that the improved Monte Carlo return method can avoid the interference of subjective human factors,and the results obtained are more accurate.At the same time,the evaluation of REITs provides value reference for investment decision makers and operators.