Dynamic Varying Relationship Research About The Influence Of Oil Price Fluctuation On World Economic Fluctuation

With the rapid development of economic globalization and reinforcement of production internationalization, various goods and services trade, capital and technology diffuse in the global production, consumption and investment fields and then flow and configure worldwide. In such circumstances, most countries and regions in the world form an increasingly close mutual connection and interdependent relationship. Therefore, the concern for world economic operation becomes a noticeable important issue for country economic development. As the blood of modern industry production, oil price fluctuation does not only have an impact on the national economy, but also has an important impact on the world economy through the linkages between countries. Studying the impact of oil price fluctuation on the economy in a closed economy will certainly underestimate the economic consequences of oil price fluctuation. Therefore, the deep research about the effect of oil price fluctuation on the world economy has significant value. On the other hand, the relationship between oil price fluctuation and world economic fluctuation presents dynamic changes in recent years, particularly after 1999 sustained rising oil price does not have negative impact on the world economy, on the contrary the situation of rising oil price coexisting with high world economic growth and low inflation occurs. Under this background, studying the dynamic varying relationship between oil price fluctuation and world economy based on a longer time series and exploring the causes of this phenomenon undoubtedly has very important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the research status at home and abroad, the paper carries on the theory background foundation from the aspects of oil price formation mechanism, world economy operating characteristics and the mechanism of oil price fluctuation influencing world economic fluctuation, and then makes the empirical test on the dynamic impacting relationship between oil price fluctuation and world economic fluctuation. The primary causes of the dynamic relationship are mainly taken from the three aspects of world macroeconomic environment changes, oil price uncertainty changes and oil price shocks sources changes. The concrete content is as follows:In the test of the dynamic varying relationship between oil price fluctuation and world economic fluctuation, the paper takes the data of whole 36 countries and OECD as the representative of world economy after the analysis and selection of indicators and then calculates corresponding quarterly GDP growth rate and inflation. Firstly, it carries on the judgment to the dynamic varying relationship using an intuitive method of statistical observation; Secondly, it divides the sample into three periods and carries on the test on the dynamic varying relationship using granger causal test; Thirdly, it uses the rolling VAR method to carry on a more accurate test to the dynamic varying relationship and also carries on further examination taking the US, Euro area, Japan and emerging Asian these four economies as the samples simultaneously. The test results show that the negative effect of oil price fluctuation on world economy is getting weaker and even presenting positive impulse response values in recent years.In the cause analysis of the dynamic varying relationship based on the macroeconomic environment view, the paper measures macroeconomic environment changes from the oil consumption intensity, economic openness degree and low inflation environment these three aspects. Using empirical method to make full descriptive analysis to these macroeconomic environment indicators, the paper analyzes the affecting mechanism based on this. Then it makes empirical test using ARDL method. The results indicate that although the three macroeconomic environment indicators have different effects on the national economy, but most are able to effectively explain the dynamic varying relationship between oil price fluctuation and world economic growth and inflation.In the cause analysis of the dynamic varying relationship based on the oil price uncertainty view, the paper firstly analyzes the influence mechanism of oil price uncertainty on economy fluctuation based on the general equilibrium model from the theory angle. Then it uses the GARCH models and moving standard deviation model to calculate the oil price uncertainty, and finds that in recent years oil price uncertainty decreases remarkably. Further the paper examines the influence of oil price uncertainty on economic fluctuation based on VAR model, and discovers that oil price uncertainty can have adverse effect on investment, consumption and unemployment, thereby reduce output and increase inflation rate. Although oil price increases remarkably after 1999, but oil price uncertainty decreases compared to the earlier period, thus it indirectly explains that oil price uncertainty is the cause of the dynamic varying relationship.In the cause analysis of the dynamic varying relationship based on the sources of oil price shocks view, the paper finds that oil price fluctuation is the interaction of oil supply shock, economic demand shocks and precautionary demand shocks through the structural decomposition of oil price fluctuation. Various shocks have significantly different effects in different periods, while oil price fluctuation after 1999 is mainly due to the effects of economic demand shocks. Then it tests the effects of there three kinds of shocks on world economic fluctuation and finds that oil supply shocks and precautionary demand shocks have negative effects on economic growth and inflation, while the positive effects of economic demand shocks on economic growth is higher than the negative effect of rising oil price. Consequently, when oil price is pushed up by economic demand shocks, oil price rise and world economic growth will go hand in hand. Contribution changes of oil shocks on price fluctuation and their economic consequences differences together explain that the changes of oil shock sources is the origin of dynamic varying relationship.This paper breaks through the present academics research perspective based on the aspect of world economy; it can enrich the related research about the impact of oil price fluctuation on the economy and has important theoretical significance. It also provides an important practical reference for various countries or economic communities to make macroeconomic policies facing oil price shocks under different environment in the process of economic globalization.