Dynamic Impacts Relationship Between Monetary Policy,Economic Fluctuation And Real Estate Price

Since the reform of the real estate market,Chinese real estate market has been developing quickly,which led to the "bubble" phenomenon of real estate prices in most areas in recent years.In response to this situation,the Chinese government has carried out a number of monetary policies to stabilize real estate prices,but in general,Chinese real estate prices still maintained a rapid upward trend.The consumption and investment of residents and enterprises have been a series of changes with the real estate price fluctuations,which led to macroeconomic fluctuations.What is the relationship between monetary policy and economic fluctuations and real estate prices?How should the government develop monetary policy to stabilize real estate prices,reducing the impact of real estate price volatility on macroeconomic fluctuations?In order to solve this question,this paper has studied the impacts of monetary policy,macroeconomic fluctuation and real estate price through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.First of all,this paper analyzes the mechanism about monetary policy to impact the real estate price,monetary policy through the money supply channels,credit routes and interest rates impact the supply and demand of real estate market,and then impact prices of real estate;real estate prices through wealth effects,direct investment effects and so on affect social consumption and investment.Secondly,this paper uses the Chinese real data to analyze the relationship between monetary policy,real estate price and economic fluctuation,and further confirm the theoretical analysis results.Finally,this paper establishes the semi-parametric global vector autoregressive model and divides the real estate market of 30 provinces by regional analysis,to research emphatically the dynamic impacts relationship between monetary policy,economic fluctuation and real estate price.According to the results of the study and the actual situation,this paper put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.Through the above analysis,the empirical results show that:(1)the positive impact of money supply and credit scale have a positive effect on real estate prices and real estate investment in the short term,and also promote the increase of social consumption and fixed investment.In the long run,the increase in money supply will have a negative effect on real estate prices,real estate development investment,social consumption and fixed asset investment.From the regional level,the money supply and credit policy have a greater impact on the price of real estate in the high housing prices region,and a greater impact on the investment in the lower housing prices region.(2)the impact of rising real estate price,has a positive role in the real estate prices and real estate investment and social consumption and fixed investment.From the regional level,the higher the regional real estate prices,the greater positive impact on real estate prices,and the lower impact on the real estate investment and social fixed investment;the impact of housing prices has a positive impact on social consumption,but the difference in the regional level is not significant,the difference between regions is more pronounced.(3)the impact of interest rates on real estate prices showed a significant nonlinear relationship,and the larger differences on regions.On the whole,when interest rates are low,raising interest rates will promote house prices rise and can't achieve the goal of effectively curbing the rise in real estate prices in various regions;when interest rates are at a higher stage,raising interest rates can significantly curb the rise in real estate prices in various regions.