Study On The Operation And Risk Management Of Logistics Finance Under Credit Extension Financing

With the development of world's economic, China gradually becomes the most importantproduction base and the most potential consumption market. Because of these reasons, Chinese smalland medium-sized enterprises face wider market space and more developing opportunities than before.However, funds shortage is an outstanding problem. Logistics finance, which is a kind of newfinancial business, owing to its convenience and multiplicity, could resolve the financial problems ofsmall and medium-sized enterprises effectively. However, in China, logistics finance is an emergingthing and still in primary stage. Therefore, study on the logistics finance's operation and risksmanagement problems has an important role: it could improve efficiency, reduce costs, arrangeproduction plan and human resource reasonably, improve the service level of financial institution andlogistics enterprise, guarantee the loan's security, promote business development. In order to study thelogistics finance's some key problems, this paper researches the pledge's flow forecasting, financingwarehouse's storage space allocation, loan parties' revenue and strategies' interactive mechanism, theemergent events' early warning and logistics finance's risks avoidance of credit extension finance.The primary innovations of this paper are as follows:(1) From operation planning view, in order to allocate the credit extension amount and financingwarehouse's stroage reasonably, this paper uses harmonic means combination forecasting method tobuild a forecasting model and forecast the pledge's flow. An example shows that the combinationforecasting method can improve the forecasting accuracy.(2) From operation organization view, in order to satisfy storage space and credit extensionamount constraint, this paper builds a storage space allocation model for temporary pledgerequirement, and uses robust optimization method to obtain the robust solution. An example provesthe validity of the model and solution method.(3) From operation controlling view, in order to study the game behaviors of logistics enterpriseand financing enterprise, this paper builds a nonlinear evolutionary game model to analyze theinteraction between the players, which considering bank's checking, uses precise integration methodwhich is developed by Professor Zhong Wanxie to study the nonlinear behaviors of evolutionarysystem. Results show that checking cost of logistics enterprise, penalty for financing enterprise etc. allparameters affect the system's evolutionary direction and players' strategies selection; furthermore,bank adjusts the credit rate reasonably, can affect game players' positive significantly, balance the revenue of players, and strengthen the supervision of financing process.(4) From early-warning of emergent events view, in order to study the problems of early-warningwith logistics finance's emergency events, take financing warehouse for example, this paperestablishes the emergency events evaluating index, and builds a grey hierarchy early-warningevaluation model which based on extension similarity coefficient method. An example proves thevalidity of this method.(5) From risk avoidance view, this paper uses the extension theory to study the problems oflogistics finance's risks, builds the risk control extension model, and seeks for contradictions' laws byusing extension analysis and extension transformation. Finally, this paper proposes formalizedextension methods and strategies for risk avoidance. This method provides feasible way fordecision-maker, and reduces the loan parties' loss.