Based On The Assets Of The Speculative Demand Is Expected To Rise In House Prices The Measurement Of The Impact

The real estate industry as a new industry, after 20 years of rapid development, has become a national economic backbone industry. The prosperity and development of the real estate market is the stability of the national economy development, but also brings a related industry investment and influent the nation's financial excessive security and social stability problems. This is because the real estate is very easy to turn to speculation, it not only can cause excessive investment in the real estate industry itself, the real estate speculation bubbles appeard, but also can promote through the related industry after the demand and supply of related industry prior to, cause economic overheating. More seriously, because of the enormous economic inertia, even if the government take strong macroeconomic measures is difficult to achieve smooth "soft landing", often bring long-term economic contraction or stagnation. In recent years, driven by various factors, rapid increases in housing prices, housing prices have become a major livelihood issues of common concern.At present to give people an intuition is between house prices and pay ability of the household income appeared deviation, because the house as a kind of special commodity has its own unique talents, with the characteristics of goods and financial attributes (rigid and the speculative demand), and the speculative demand in the current economic environment influent house prices, which its influence is a special path. performance for housing price cause residents assets increasing wealth, assets wealth growth assets value with expected for the continued evolution prices driving force. Therefore, the real estate market of speculative question is not only to solve, house prices and the actual price itself deviation from the problems, but also should be able to interpretation of the deviation in mechanism and evolution. There is a widely overlooked should be more worth, the real estate market development in different regions and stages of speculative demand and prices should be the role of differences in the relationship, or relationship can be said that this role should be a sub-region, dynamic phase changes. In view of this, this paper will use the 2000 to 2009 China's house prices, disposable income, capital appreciation expected quarterly data on prices of speculative and short-term effects of the regional impact analysis to study the speculative demand for real estate the price mechanism, and thus reveal the speculative demand for real estate prices and the impact of regional differences in phase characteristics; subsequently studied the asset appreciation of the real estate market expected long-run equilibrium relationship and the impact of the expected appreciation of housing assets short-term price fluctuations effect. This paper is divided into six chapters, specific studies of the problem as follows.Chapter 1 is an introduction. This chapter introduces the background and significance of research, the research framework, the main content and the research methods, and real estate the speculative demand and the influence of rigid demand for housing prices in the home and abroad were summarized, and the previous research and through to the study of the theory of more explicit in this paper, the emphasis of the study.Chapter 2 is the real estate price bubbles and related theory. This chapter on real estate prices and the wave theory, this paper also introduces the phenomenon of speculative reviewing the history of real estate bubble, and the price of the connotation, characteristics and the influence of price are analyzed in detail, specifically pointed out that the speculative real estate prices of enormous impetuses; Then contact the real estate market in China from the current situation, supply and demand.Chapter 3 explains the appreciation of the major real estate is expected to generate speculative demand and evolution, in which financial factors on assets driven by speculative demand had a great impact, including bank credit system and the effect of the financial regulatory system. Subsequently the use of game theory to build a revaluation of assets and speculative demand is expected between the generation and evolution of the game model, the model is derived and found that the market is expected that only when the real estate market boom in the non-state, wind and will not appear more positive feedback behavior, this state does not produce the real estate speculative demand; while the other, by contrast, speculative buyers will have a preference, and preference depends on the strength of speculative appreciation of asset expected returns, and the role of the sheep, the lead to the spread of the overall market speculation, and ultimately likely to cause real estate speculation bubble. Game model to explain the benefits expected speculative demand for real estate an important influence, running through the actual situation on the real estate assets, the expected appreciation of the study is expected to dominate the generation and spread of speculation; after the chapter on appreciation of assets and real estate prices expected the impact of the relationship between the detailed mathematical derivation, eventually got the appreciation of asset-based model of the expected housing prices.Chapter 4 mainly studies the speculative demand and rigid demand and housing price mechanism of action, and construct between assets value based on expected of house prices, the main conclusion model summed up as follows. (1) the eastern province of asset returns variable coefficient expected relatively the Midwest is higher, show that the eastern province of the speculative demand to the house price impact and the more speculative effect more apparent,. The expected parts asset returns coefficient significantly greater than urban per capita disposable income coefficient, Shanghai, jiangsu, zhejiang, shows that these areas the speculative demand has more than basic need a leading house price movements key factors; The eastern other provinces asset returns coefficient and expected income coefficient are not significant, such as Beijing, tianjin, guangdong, to show that the speculative .(3)based on the speculative demand and rigid demand of house prices measurement model not only reflect the real estate market at present, and the basic characteristics of the present real estate market is not really exist speculative effect has strong ability to explain that, that we take on method has certain rationality, at the same time, the model function into the rigid demand variables and the speculative demand variables, both between one can clearly reveals effect on our country's housing price movements of the key factors. East, middle and west three areas, due to the economic development, and openness to different the speculative demand and rigid demand has obvious characteristic regional. Among them, the asset appreciation from speculative demand is expected to affect the eastern housing prices in the key factors, and the trend of rigid demand.Chapter 5 studies the impact of monetary policy and price mechanism, selecting the appropriate broad money supply, interest rates, inflation rate as the threshold variable, then use panel threshold model of price impact effect of the stage empirical analysis to explore the room speculative demand for real estate and housing prices affect the demand for rigid stage evolution; on the basis of their main conclusions are summarized below. Price impact of stage-effects model showed that (1) threshold panel threshold variable is based on the monetary policy transmission mechanism to select the price, the chapter chooses the broad money supply, inflation, interest rates and housing prices as a research stage impact effect of the threshold variable. (2) the results of subsequent estimates indicate that demand for speculative demand and rigid monetary policy in the context of the impact on house prices is divided into two phases, the first phase 2000-2005, second phase 2006-2009; in stage in the speculative demand had no significant effect on prices, price volatility is mainly affected by the impact of the rigid requirements; in the second phase of speculative demand for housing and the impact factor has less rigid requirements, and has gradually become key factor affecting price movements. (3) It can be found in house prices since 2000, the law of the dynamic stage, speculative demand over time significantly enhance the impact on house prices, so far speculative demand and rigid demand has become China's rapid price together rising main, and speculative demand affect the price volatility has become the main cause.Chapter 6 studies the appreciation of the expected short-term fluctuations of the real estate market long-run equilibrium relations. Estimation results showed that the expected appreciation of the short-term behavior on the adjustment of real estate prices is significant, the appreciation of the expected behavior and long-run equilibrium relationship between real estate prices in the next period will be deviated from the appropriate amendments, based on panel cointegration appreciation of the expected behavior on the long-run equilibrium relationship between real estate prices tend on the whole stable. In the short term, the appreciation of the expected behavior and are mutually Granger cause real estate prices, that in the short term there is a two-way causality. The results show that, if the short term, the appreciation of the expected behavior of the real estate price increase will further boost the level. And to stimulate the appreciation of real estate prices will increase the expected behavior. Appreciation of real estate prices is expected behavior and the interaction effect is obvious.