Chinese Listed Companies Surplus To Meet Or Exceed Analyst Earnings Forecast Research

The listed companies'earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast refers to the listed company having positive earnings surprise. As the analysts earning forecast become the most important threshold for the listed companies during the 1990s, the phenomenon of avoiding negative earnings surprise become more and more significant in the American capital market. Besides the performance of the listed companies 'better performance, the listed companies MBE and the analysts' catering are also the other two mainly reasons for the listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast.The early literatures of American studying the listed companies to realize MBE through earnings management or expectation management, which made the companies' earnings meet or exceed analysts' earning forecast, were mainly from the perspective of listed company. But most of recent literatures documented that, in order to maintain a good relationship with the executives of listed Companies to get more information, the analysts would change their earning forecast pattern, which would also make the companies' earnings meet or exceed analysts'earning forecast.With the development of China's capital market, the impact of the analysts is also growing. Considering the different system background of domestic and overseas' market, whether there are avoiding the negative earnings surprises in China which is similar to the developed capital market or not, become a worthy of study. Thus, in order to explore the companies'earnings meet or exceed analysts'earning forecast in the domestic market, we carry out the following research.Based on the arrangement of theoretical reasons for the overseas' listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast, this article had explored the existence, amplitude, frequency of the listed companies'earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast, and explored the capital market respond under the premise of avoiding negative earnings surprise. In addition, this article had also taken a research on the way to achieve and the finally result of china's listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast from the perspectives of both the listed companies'and analysts.Finally, this paper found that the phenomenon of avoiding the negative earnings surprises indeed existed in China, which is similar to the foreign market, but the frequency is not high, and the amplitude is not too much because of the existence of the constraint costs. The study also found that, in short window, the stock price of (?)isted companies whose earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast would increase, while the other whose earnings not would decline. This explained why the investors in China would make their market expectation based on earning forecasts of analysts to some extent.In addition, on the respect of the reason causing China's listed companies' earnings reaching or exceeding analysts'earning forecast, this article did not found China's listed companies would use the earnings management method to realize MBE, the mainly reasons were the listed companies had better performance and the analysts' carning forecast were below the earning forecast expectation. Meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast could also convey a single of better performance of company to some extent. The mainly reason causing the analysts'earning forecast lower than the expected earnings forecast is the analysts want to maintain a good relationship with the executives of listed companies to get private information of the companies, and the analysts who catering for the demands of managers of public companies usually made much more accurate predictions because of more information they could get. Thus, the listed companies meeting or exceeding analyst' (?)rning forecast in China are more in line with the resource dependence theory.This paper verified the conflict of interest between listed companies and the analysts, and gave some suggestions to promote the development of China's capital market, which are enhancing the independence of analysts, increasing fair information disclosure and raising the penalty costs of violation of fair information disclosure, and so on.