The Mechanism Of Behavior Of International Oil Price Volatility And Study On Forecast Model

Oil is a very special non-renewable energy, distributed very unevenly around the world.In the20th century,70years ago, as long-term stability of oil prices and relatively low oilprices, very few scholars are concerned about fluctuations in oil prices. Twice in the late70'sthe oil crisis caused by the war led to sharp fluctuations in oil prices. In recent years,international oil price is rising rapidly, all the way to high and frequent fluctuations. Not onlyhas the industrialized countries had an impact, but also the academic community extensivelyhas researched into reasons for fluctuations in oil prices and its prediction model, oil pricesbecome the focus of global concern.First,the article arranges and classifies the oil price fluctuations on previous researchachievements. By time the main line,according to the different research methods,it isclassified into three categories: informal model, the theoretical model and simulation model.Second, the influence of factors, such as oil prices, OPEC's production, global economicdevelopment, production costs, producers of the unexpected political events, economic crises,natural environmental changes, etc., will be regarded as a system. Factor is the systemelements. The relationship between each factor is the relationship between the elements. Thisrelationship formed the structure of the system to determine the function of the system, that is,the rise and fall of oil prices.Again, the system of impact of oil pricing is a complex living system with thecharacteristics of complex systems. This paper analyzes the complexity of the system fromnine aspects. Complexity characteristics of the system are emerging and learning.In addition, the paper proposes a system of oil price influence factors has a "human"view of intelligent behavior. Fluctuations in oil prices will be subject to the decision-makingsystem of the human factors, the most important intelligent behavior is reflected in its history,memory and automatic growth.The paper also compiles a major historical event from1970to2010on the impact of oilprice volatility, involving political, economic, military, scientific and natural areas. It is useda simple system to quantify. Starting from the system's memory, this paper points out the firstoccurrence of events have score high, the recurrence of similar incidents have low scores.Finally, to experience modal analysis and text at predicting oil prices assorts studyresults as an example; the article describes two common current method of complex scientific modeling. In the TEI@I methodology, according to the intelligent behavior of a factorssystem of oil prices, I design a knowledge-based warehouse model of oil price forecastingsupport system framework. It strengthened experts in the function of the knowledge module,a better interpretation of problem solving mode of the "man-machine with". To theprediction of unexpected events as an example, the article describes the operation of oil pricevolatility prediction method of uncertain reasoning using the formula.