Analyzing International Trade Patterns Of Egypt's Orange In The Global Market

Agricultural exports have a large proportion in Egypt's total exports. Egypt's agriculturalexports value amounts to1.6billion dollars on average during2000-2009; this value represents13.5percent of Egypt's total exports ($11.8billion) during the same period.Because orange is one of the significant crops among Egypt's agricultural exports, it isimportant to understand the patterns and determinants of international trade in this crop in orderto design and implement appropriate policies and strategies to expand trade at both company andnational levels, and in particular to promote Egyptian agricultural exports.The significance of this thesis is to develop a framework for the analysis of thecompetitiveness of the Egyptian orange exports and to develop comprehensive models for exportsupply and import demand of Egyptian oranges.This thesis provides three important contributions. Firstly, comprehensive patterns ofEgypt's international orange trade in terms of both volume and value are revealed. Secondly, itdescribes the significant factors influencing on exports of Egyptian orange. Finally, this thesissynthesizes the theoretical framework and methodology for maximize the return of Egyptianorange exports.The study aims mainly to analyze the Egyptian orange exports. The study will indicate thecurrent situation of orange crop at the world in general and at Egypt in particular and also thegeographical distribution and market share of the Egyptian orange exports. Moreover theEgyptian competitive position of orange exports in the world markets is identified. In addition tothis, the study tried to find alternative plans to maximize the export value of this crop.Results indicated that Egypt occupied the first rank among African countries in orangeproduction. In respect of trade, Egypt occupied the third rank among African countries thatexport oranges. The main destinations of Egyptian orange exports are Arab countries, EuropeanUnion and APEC. Saudi Arabia is the main importer among Arab countries, United Kingdom is the main importer among European Union countries, and Russia is main importer among APECcountries.The set of measurements of Egypt's orange competitiveness in Saudi Arabia marketindicated that Egyptian orange exports have a fierce competition from competitor countries. Theanalysis based on competitiveness measurements revealed that Egypt dominates the first rankingof competitiveness in terms of orange production, penetration to Saudi Arabia market, the shareof export market and stability of exporting. On the other hand, Egypt occupied the second placein terms of export growth rate, export strength, export dependence. Egypt occupied the thirdplace in terms of price competitiveness. These results confirm the importance of Saudi Arabiamarket and the need to maintain this market to fulfill its annual requirements of oranges.The set of measurements of Egypt's orange competitiveness in UK market indicate thatEgypt dominates the first ranking of competitiveness in terms of export growth rate. Egyptoccupied the third place in terms of production competitiveness. In terms of market penetrationand export market share indices, Egypt occupied the fourth place. Based on coefficient ofinstability index, Egyptian orange export is in the third ranking. Export strength and exportdependence indices revealed Egypt's competitiveness in UK market is very week in comparisonwith other competitors.It had been shown the importance of UK market in absorption of Egypt's orange exports,where Egypt achieves the highest annual growth rate (23.4%) among the competitor countries atthat market.The set of measurements of Egypt's orange competitiveness in Russian market indicatethat Egyptian orange exports have a fierce competition from competitor countries. The analysisbased on competitiveness measurements, Egypt dominates the first ranking of competitiveness interms of export growth rate (32%), and the second ranking in terms of price competitiveness andmarket penetration. Based on production competitiveness, Egypt is ranking third, and based onexport market share Egypt is ranking fourth. According to export stability, export strength, andexport dependence indices; Egypt's competitiveness in Russian market is very weak.These results confirm the importance of Russian market and the need to maintain thismarket to fulfill its annual requirements of oranges. It is clear that Egypt has a great ability topenetrate Russian market so Egypt should do its best to increase orange exports to this market. To identify the determinants of foreign demand for Egyptian orange exports, a set offactors that are believed to be more influential on the Egyptian orange exports were identified inthe main markets. The most factors affecting the demand for Egyptian orange in Saudi Arabiamarket is Saudi Arabia's import quantity of orange from the world. The most factors affectingthe demand for Egyptian orange in Russian market are exchange rate of dollar to Egyptian pound,and Russia's total import value from Egypt.To reach an optimal alternative export plans for Egyptian orange, it had been formulated5models of linear programming. These models have agreed among themselves on the objectivefunction (maximize Egypt's orange exports during2005-2009, and the specified key is thatEgypt's export quantity of orange not greater than the average exported amounts during theperiod2005-2009, but these models have differed among themselves in terms of alternativeconstraints of each model.Results revealed that Egypt's export values of orange at the all five alternative plans aregreater than export value at the current plan. This suggests that any change in the current exportplan of Egyptian orange through imposed constraints will increase the export value more than thecurrent plan's value.