| Since the middle and latter 1990s of the twentieth century, there were underdemand, deflation and short of growth in the macroeconomy of China. To combat these problems, the Chinese government has implemented a packet of fiscal and monetary policies to enlarge domestic demand and stimulate economic growth, including the offering of Treasury bills, decreasing interest rates, increasing the supply of money, and so on. The power and various ways of the policies are unparalleled since the foundation of China. How these policies achieve effects and whether the results of these policies achieve the expected aim of adjustments are the universal concern of the government and the circles of the society. Therefore, it is important and also realistic to analyze and evaluate the effects of fiscal and monetary policies. This article is guided by the theories of contemporary macroeconomics, dependent on the data of macro-statistics, and uses the macroeconomic model and statistical methods as the instruments to have a positive analysis and evaluation on the selection, inaction, implementation and effects of the recent fiscal and monetary policies enlarging the domestic demand in China. This article analyzes, summarizes and evaluates on the impact of the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies of our country on the operation of macroeconomy to measure the function and contribution of fiscal and monetary policies on the economic growth and stability of our country. What's more, this article makes responsive strategies and suggestions on the inaction and adjustments of the aims of fiscal and monetary policies of our country, the operation of policy instruments, the perfection of policy transmission system, and the coordination and cooperation of the two policies and so on. This article makes use of the connection of qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and systematic analysis to have a positive analysis on the effects of fiscal and monetary policies of our country. And, it puts emphasis on the organic integration of theories, methods and positive analysis to form an integrated system. The research results not only provide dependent data for the practice of macro-coordination, but also play a role on the enriching and developing the theory system of the course of economic policies. This article mainly researches on and solves two key problems: one is to set up and perfect the basic theories and method systems of evaluating the effects of macroeconomic policies; the other is to have a systematic and positive analysis and evaluation on the fiscal and monetary policies which is to enlarge the domestic demand and adopted since 1998 in China. This article mainly consists four parts of the content. The first part is from the first Chapter to the second Chapter. The first Chapter mainly narrates the aim, means and method of the thesis and makes a comment on the present condition of research in home and abroad. The second Chapter expounds the related basic theories problems of fiscal and monetary policies to make a theoretic and positive preparation for the following research. This part mainly includes the aim and instruments of fiscal and monetary policies, the transmit and impact factor of fiscal and monetary policies, the coordination and cooperation of fiscal and monetary policies and the practice of fiscal and monetary policies enlarging domestic demand in home and abroad, and so on. The second part of this article is the third Chapter and fourth Chapter. It mainly expounds the effects of economic policies and the theories and methods of evaluating economic policies. The third Chapter is on the theories, principles and methods of evaluating fiscal and monetary policies, including the mean of the effects of economic policies, the content, principles, reasons, ideas and methods of the effects of economic policies of evaluating it. The fourth Chapter is the theoretic structure of evaluating the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, including the fundamental theories and methods of statistical analysis, IS-LM model, and the methods of using IS-LM model to analyze and evaluate the effects of fiscal and monetary policies. The third part is the fifth and sixth Chapter, is mainly a positive analysis of the effects of fiscal and monetary policies of enlarging fiscal and monetary policies. The fifth Chapter is on the statistical analysis of the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, and is mainly to make use of statistical data to evaluate the implementation effects of fiscal and monetary policies. The results show that, the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies embodies the intent of enlarging domestic demand, has a positive impact on the economic growth, investment, consumption, import, export and the wave of economy, however, their effects are not very satisfying. Many goals of macro-adjustments are not realized. The government makes a correct selection on the policy aim of enlarging domestic demand, and the monetary policy makes a limitedly coordinating and cooperating role on the implementation on the fiscal policies, however, there is a contradiction on implementing monetary policies. The negative effects of positive fiscal policies are mainly to have a direct burden on the debts of the government and encumber the process of market-oriented reform. The sixth Chapter is on the econometric analysis of fiscal and monetary policies enlarging domestic demand. It mainly reflects the role of fiscal and monetary policies pulling the aggregate volume of economy and preventing theslow-down of economy. The results show that, of the impact on economic growth, fiscal policies, including governmental purchasing payments, taxation and transfer payments pull economic growth by 2.44, 2.63, 2.02 ,1.49and 1.39 percent from 1998 to 2002; the only offering treasury bills increases fiscal investments, pulls economic growth by 1.08, 1.33, 0.45, 0.71, 0.98 per cent from 1998 to 2002; increasing the supply of money pulls economic growth by 0.91, 1.34, 1.12, 0.96 and 1.59 per cent from 1998 to 2002. On the price level, fiscal policies pull the price level by 0.97, 1.06, 0.80, 0.59 and 0.55 percent from 1998 to 2002; monetary policies pull the price level by 0.30, 0.49, 0.47, 0.39, and 0.60 percent from 1998 to 2002. On employment, the policy of treasury bills increases employment by 0.24, 0.30, 0.11, 0.17, 0.25 per cent from 1998 to 2002, and it creates 7,470,000 vacancies in total. From the analysis, we can see that the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies plays a positive role on social and economic development. Summarizing the analysis results of the fifth Chapter and sixth Chapter, it shows that the function of the effects of fiscal and monetary policies which is adopted continuously in the recent five years reflects on directly pulling the aggregate economy and preventing the economy from losing its speed, however, it is not satisfying on restarting the system of economic internal growth. The fourth part is the seventh Chapter and eighth Chapter, mainly to find out the factors of having an impact on fiscal and monetary policies, which is aimed to the positive analysis of the third part. And, it puts forward the responsive strategies of increasing the effects of fiscal and monetary policies. The seventh Chapter is to analyze the impact factor of fiscal and monetary policies. From the positive analysis, we can see that, the effects of fiscal and monetary policies enlarging domestic demand are not realized as expected, they do not achieve their effects, which they should be achieved, and furthermore, the effects of policies decrease gradually. The reason of forming this trend, on one hand, is from the internal limits of policies, including the coordination and cooperation of policies, the operation of policies, the power of policies, time lag, the time of implementing policies, some imperfection and mistakes exist in these aspects; on the other hand, it is from the external preventing factors, including the micro-base, the factors of systems involved in the government and the open economy. The eighth Chapter is the responsive strategies and measures of enlarging the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, including the summaries of experience and mistakes of implementing macroeconomic policies, the measures of increasing the effects of economic policies, and the tendency of macroeconomic policies in China. Among them, the measures of increasing the effects of economic policies include the scientific inaction of policies, the appropriate coordination and mixture of policies,the grasping the power of policies, the selection of the time of implementation of policies, cultivating the transmit system and some related measures, and so on. The basic tendency of macroeconomic policies of China in the future is to enlarge effective demand and put forward structural adjustments. Fiscal and monetary policies should be adjusted on operation orientation according to the requirements of economic development and systematic reform. The selling point and innovative point of this article mainly reflects on: 1. It depends on the macroeconomic theories and makes use of econometrics method as the instruments to have a positive analysis on fiscal and monetary policies enlarging domestic demand, and makes theories, methods and positive research scientifically into one body. This article is based on IS-LM model to set up the simultaneous model of macroeconomic of China, and to deduce the mathematics equation of the multiplier of fiscal policies and monetary policies. Based on it, according to realistic statistical data, it measures on the effects of fiscal and monetary policies econometrically. Based on macroeconomic theories, it is innovative to set up the evaluating method of fiscal and monetary policies and positive analysis. 2.It puts forward the basic theories on the effects and evaluation of macroeconomic policies. The third Chapter expounds the content, principles, method and reasons of evaluating the effects of economic policies to fill up the blank of the theories of macroeconomic theories. The references in home and abroad do not specifically and completely expound on this content. 3.It analyzes systematically the factors of preventing the effects of fiscal and monetary policies and puts forward the responsive strategies and measures of increasing the effects of fiscal and monetary policies. 4.It regards macroeconomics as one system to set up the simultaneous model of macroeconomics. Also, it integrates the economic growth, the stability of price level, and full employment and other aims of economic policies. It measures the impact of implementation of fiscal policies and monetary policies on policy aim, further, embodies the effects of fiscal and monetary policies from the whole. 5.It makes an integrated research on the effects of fiscal and monetary policies and solves the partial phenomena solely focusing on one policy of other researches. This makes the conclusion of research more scientific and credible.
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