An Empirical Study On Effects Of Monetary Policies Under The Condition Of Economic Overheating In China

Being one kind of macroscopic adjustments, monetary policies played an important role in our country economic development, such as price stabilization and economic growth, since the opening to the foreign countries, especially National Central Bank deciding the monetary supply as the intermediate aim. Although there were failure's precepts, successful experiences also existed in actual execution. especially the soft landing in 1996 was example of successful model. From 2003, the partial economic over hot started, it acquired good results because of the macroscopic adjustments, But we could find that the task is not optimistic and the price index confront enormous pressure. Therefore it is necessary to discuss the effects of monetary policies in economic over hot. The research have realistic meanings in this aspect. The paper firstly described the basic theories of monetary policy. Then it review the effects of monetary policies in economic over hot. Consequently, stable tests were conducted to concerned variables, based on which respective cause and effect relationships of monetary supply and investment, consumption, export was tested. Furthermore,after regression analysis and innovation effects, it concluded that monetary supply greatly influenced investment and export and play less effects on consumption. in the following contents, self-regression was conducted on monetary supply, GDP and price index to analyze the case in the economic over hot, it gave the conclusion that M1 to GDP and M0 and M2 to price were great. and it also proved that the monetary policy in economic over hot was not neutral. At last, the paper gave the policy suggestions, hoping the economic to develop healthy.