Research On Decision-Making Of Supply Chain Capacity With Flexibility Under Demand Uncertainty

With the rapid development of social economy, the market competition has become more fierce, product life cycles have been shortened, customers demand have become more discriminating, and the time has become more important. It increases uncertainty and dynamics of operation of the enterprises production planning, causes the enterprises to face the stern challenge, and sets a higher request to supply chain management. The goal of the supply chain management is enabling the enterprises to meet the fierce changeable market requirements. However, the flexibility was considered as an effective strategy to respond to the uncertainty. This thesis focuses on study of the decision-making method and strategy of the supply chain's capacity with flexibility under demand uncertainty.Fist, considering minimizing the expected cost of supply chain subject to volume flexibility, the single-product supply chain's volume flexibility decision-making model under demand uncertainty was established. We got the function of the expected minimum cost and the volume flexibility level of supply chain. We presented the definition of the efficient frontiers of supply chain's volume flexibility decision-making and explained its economic meanings. Meanwhile, we analyzed its characteristics. The result showed that the effective boundary has the monotone increasing and the convexity. Consequently, it showed between the supply chain's volume flexibility and the expected total cost is the non-linear relations. These provided the theory basis for decision-maker choosing the moderate flexibility to be possible to obtain the greatest income.Based on the economic meanings and characteristics of the efficient frontiers, we studied the methods to determine the optimal flexibility. Two kind of new criterion to obtain the optimal solution were proposed, including minimizing the cost-flexibility coefficient and maximizing the utility of decision-maker. We established the optimal decision-making model, and obtained the optimal solution expression. Through the example analysis has further confirmed the validity of decision-making model.