Lottery Behavior: A Theoretical Framework And Economics Analysis

The lottery is now increasingly used by countries to raise funds for public welfare, For politicians, lottery is a source of revenue free of tax and it can gain public support, because this income is mainly for welfare expenditure. In 2005, lottery sales reach 71.39billion yuan , increased 88%.Compared with the developed countries, lottery sales in china are estimated from 10 billion to 26.45billion .Too much room for further development , lottery deserves academic research.At present, the illegimate lottery flooded and in need of solution. Our country's national lottery ticket has already distributed for 19 years, but no abundant academic explanation, the theory framework and the official lottery legislation have got been established. This has not only impeded the civil administration and the sports enterprise development, but also gives opportunities to illegal gambling, the illegal private lottery. In consequence, the social stability and the economical development are significantly blocked. Therefore, studies of lottery behavior against this background, which can establish good administrative principles for the government , is of vital practical significance. Theoretically, Lottery violates the general assumption of risk evasion in economics. It can't be simply explained by the risk preferences or irrational behavior, and it is hard to determine its nature. Therefore, a research in this lottery mechanisms will enrich economics theory.In terms of content , lottery industry is generally considered to consist of the lottery ticket, gambling with the human or the animal as the object and the Casino. Because Casino and the horse racing and so on have not been allowed in china, this dissertation palaces lottery as its object of research.It analyses lottery from two dimensions of practice and theory. First, this article carries out the theoretical analysis of the abundant lottery behavior based on preview literatures: Why do the people want to participate in the lottery? Is it a kind of rational behavior or a rational behavior limited by ability, one kind of limited rational behavior or the irrational behavior? On basis of this analysis , the article introduces the investment portfolio analysis from the perspective of Shefrin's Behavioral Portfolio theory. And then the Dissertation carries out the empirical investigation and mainly studies three questions: First, the factors that affect the rate of lottery expenditure? Second, the factors that affect the rate of lottery participation? Third, why some people choose the national legitimate lottery, some people choose the illegitimate lottery? Grounded on data from lottery inquisition and Probit and Tobit model, the dissertation draws certain important conclusions. Finally, comparing lottery with donation , this dissertation proposes some strategies to guide lottery industry development.Because lottery has not attracted adequate attention in economics, this paper is only a pilot research therefore deserves further exploration, nevertheless, This dissertation still has the following new insights:First, the dissertation has tried to establish a lottery theoretical model on the basis of preview...