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Dynamic Model And Econometric Analysis On Cyclical Co-movement Of Variables Of Macroeconomic In China

Posted on:2007-07-16Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:H Y ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360185957921Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Make a comprehensive view of economic development of various countries, find that each of them has experienced and is experiencing rising in fluctuations. Fluctuating will bring economic losing and it is often the direct ratio of the extent of recession and the size of fluctuation. Although it cannot be discarded by artificial methods, we can get the law of it and avoid the violent fluctuations in order to reducing the negative effect to our national economy.The development of business cycle theory can be divided into 4 periods. The first one begins with last 18 century and early 19 century and it lies in the same era with the classical politics economic. The second begins with 1870s and it is in the same period with the new classical economic. Marginal analysis and utility theory is introduced into economic. The third begins with Keynes revolution in 1936. The forth is the age of the modern business cycle theory which begins with 1970s. Modern theories maintain the character of classical economic and regard the exogenous impulse as the cause of fluctuation, such as technology innovation.We carry out our research along with the following six aspects: first, summary artificial methods of business cycle systematically and build the dynamic model of business cycle of China on the thoughts of modern theory. Second, introduce the measuring of business cycle in economic time series. Third, we sum up the basic method of dividing business cycle phase, and research the mode of expansion and recession around economic fluctuation in China. Forth, collect test methods of asymmetry of business cycle and analyze the relationship between the inflation and economic growth with ARCH model. Fifth, we examine the correlation between the economic structure and economic fluctuation. Then a...
Keywords/Search Tags:economic comovement, economic growth, ARMA model, HP filter, asymmetry
PDF Full Text Request
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