The Study Of Cause, Evaluation And Control Of National Debt Credit Risk In China

It has been twenty years since central government recovered to issue national debt in 1981.The function of national debt can not be neglected in the economy development.In 1990's, especially since central government carried out positive fiscal policy in 1998, the scale of national debt in China had increased quickly.Many people begin to concern about the situation of national debt credit risk in China.What are formation causes of national debt credit risk in China? How is national debt credit risk in China? What measures shall central government adopt to control the national debt credit risk? We will analyze these questions and try to provide some reasonable solutions.The first part is about analysis on formation causes of national debt credit risk. First, we generally analyze formation causes of national debt credit risk in China by means of national debt sustainability and game theory. Then, we discretely analyze formation causes of national debt credit risk in China.The second part is about routine analysis on national debt credit risk in China. First, on the basis of analysis on formation causes of national debt credit risk, we carry out routine analysis on national debt credit risk in China from three aspects of economy and politics condition, nominal national debt condition and real national debt condition. Real national debt condition analysis includes other government debt condition analysis and real foreign debt condition analysis.The third part is about comprehensive analysis on national debt credit risk. First, on the basis of routine analysis on national debt credit risk in China, we establish an integrative estimate model and use this model to evaluate the change of national debt credit risk in China these years. We determine evaluation indexes weights by way of synthetic weights determination, which combines entropy theory and analytic hierarchy process method. We also compare national debt credit risk of China with that of other countries.Then, on combination of grey system theory and scenario analysis, we carry out asset and liability analysis on the national debt credit risk in China in 2004 under different increasing paths of financial revenue and expenditure. In addition, we also study the influence of different maturity structures and interest payment modes on national debt credit risk.The fourth part is about national debt credit risk control. First, we constitute...