Research On The National Debt Scale Risk Evaluation Based On SVM

Since China re-issued national debt in 1981, the fiscal, economic and financial function expressed by national debt are being perfected. National debt policy has becoming one of the most important contemporary macro-economy policy of our country. At the same time, after guard against the 1998 and 2008 financial crisis, the scale of national debt has expanded to an unprecedented extent. Worse still, the current macro-economy continued depression. In the report on the work of the government in recent years, continued proactive fiscal policy is proposed clearly. Hence, the scale of fiscal deficit climbs and the scale of nation debt keeping increase. By this time, it’s very essential to keep an eye on changes of the scale risk of our national debt. Therefore, the evaluation and management of national debt scale risk appears to be especially urgent and important. And to guard against national debt scale risk, confirm the rational scale of our national debt and maintenance the smooth running of the economy and society, it is of great importance theoretically and practically to research risk assessment.This paper first defined clearly the concept and implication of national debt and national debt scale risk, stated primary theoretical model of national debt scale risk research in current, and summarized the history and current situation of our national debt issue. Secondly, on the basis of analyzed the influence factors of national debt scale risk, this paper established the national debt scale risk evaluation index system which including indexes related to the characterization of the government financing ability, and evaluated the national debt scale risk using the comprehensive index method based on the national debt data set from 1981 to 2014 year. Lastly, after introduced the basic theory and arithmetic of support vector machine, this paper evaluated the national debt scale risk using multi-class support vector machines, and compared the evaluate result with the comprehensive index method, and made some suggestions on guard and management national debt scale risk.Researches indicate that: First, support vector machine appears as effective and efficiency as traditional methods in national debt scale risk evaluation. Second, national debt scale risk and its influence factors exists complicated non-linear relation. Third, the scale risk of our national debt keeps low since 2011, therefore, it is safe and feasible that our government expanding the size of fiscal deficit and increase the intensity of proactive fiscal policy.