Study On Stability Mechanism Of The Banking System In Our Country Under The Condition Of International Capital Flow In-out

Financial industry is the core of the modern economy, while the banking is placed in the core position of the financial industry . The international capital flow likes "a blade sword", when it promotes economy development of the host country, it also brings some unsteady factors for them,especially the flow of short-term international capital. It brings direct or indirect influence to the stability of the banking system. Underground of financial liberalism of our country, and on the basis of the opening of the foundation item, we will gradually release the control of the capital item, international capital will flow more widely, more frequently and on a larger scale in the our country.Firstly, this dissertation gives the related conception of bank system stability, then analyzes the equilibrium of deposit market and loan market which shows the stability of banking system in a self-enclosed situation, finally gets a conclusion that those factors lead a decisive function, such as prices of consumer goods and capital goods, saving and lending rates, deposit reserve rate, success possibility of debtors and so on. As those factors are determined by the macroscopic economy, the development of the banking system and decisions of depositors and creditors, we can have a deeply understanding on the affect mechanism of these factors made to the stability of the banking system. Basing on this, stability mechanism for different condition of banking system was put forward.Through the understanding of formation and development trend of international capital flow, the direct and indirect effects on the country's banking system were studied. Among them, the main performance of direct effects is that the capital flow causes the change of bank's asset scale and the structure of balance sheet, and later causing loan scale change, and foreign bangks' coming will bring excessive competion, all these will increase loan risk; The indirect effect mainly includes the influence on macroeconomics, industrial structure, financial and monetary policy and so on, then to banking system. The banking crisis may go forward to various countries because of the international capital flow; this paper discussed the various ways that international capital infections the crisis and introduce the internal and external stability mechanism which are common used in developed countries. According to the fact of our country, the theory was deduced to our country, and concrete effects mechanism that international capital flow made to banking system was studied.The evaluation of the stability of banking system helps each benefit relatives identify the risk of banking system, and adopt the measure to guard against the bank crisis possibly caused in time. This paper builds the IBSS to evaluate banking system stability, adopting year data from 1986 to 2003 year, and reach the conclusion that the bank system of our country has some fluctuations of different degree in the stability during this period. According to the comprehensive evaluation index of the stability, the paper carries on causality test of the structure factor of the international capital flow of stability system of the banking system. It draws conclusion that the structure of international capital flow haven't influenced the banking system stability of our country obviously, where there are differences with other nations. The reasons of these differences mainly are the strict control system of foreign exchange that don't allow speculative capital flow for long time, the government implicit guarantee and our country having not the real market economy system. Because the financial liberalism is the inevitable trend of the world economy and the financial development, the relaxation on the exchange control and the market...