Research On Investment Project Economic Appraisal Based On Bounded Rationality

The traditional project appraisal theory system is in pursuit of profit maximization based on"full rationality". This research introduces the Simon's"bounded rationality"as a new theory foundation and more accords with the practice of investment decision-making. On the basis this research not only includes the traditional project appraisal theory objective of profit maximization but also develops the new objective of the capability of obtaining satisfying revenue, which forms the synthesis of two dimension aims and makes project appraisal theory developing the analysis of known information into the analysis of general information in theory and turning the single-objective decision into the multi-objective decision. According to information is known or not, this research newly distinguishes the concept of certainty, risk and uncertainty. Known information includes certainty and risk and unknown information includes uncertainty. On the dimensionality of the capability of obtaining satisfying revenue, the difference that the IRR of project eliminating risk factor subtracts the rate of satisfying revenue reflects the project capability of obtaining satisfying revenue. And this provides theory foundation to project optimization using IRR in practice and gives advice to investment decision from the new point of view. This research enhances the understanding of unknown information influence and this is the problem that prevenient project appraisal theory never involved and this research will bring about a beginning of unknown information understanding in project appraisal. In practice the objective of the dimensionality of the capability of obtaining satisfying revenue conforms to the investor practical investment project appraisal request. Finally the investor may weigh two appraisals goals and make investment decision-making according to own value orientation.On the dimensionality of profit maximization,this thesis mainly analyzes existence question and the wrong understanding about appraisal target and the method in the present definite analysis of investment appraisal theory and proposes the new assessment method. At the same time it also introduces the decision -making methods under the risk and uncertainty. On the dimensionality of the capability of obtaining satisfying revenue, through the determination of satisfying return ratio and compensation of the risk factor in the cash flow, the single project and the project group optimization method system is established under this appraisal dimension.