Research On Credit Concentration And The Risk Of Commercial Bank In China

Finance reform brings the marketable and commercial operation of bank. The driver of commercialization and the chase of profit cause the trend of Credit concentration. Credit concentration is not the particular performance of china, but a worldwide problem with different serious degree. Study of Credit concentration is going more and more deeply. Credit concentration do brings more profit and accord with the police orient, but with large risk which maybe fatal in the viewpoint of long-term. For example, territorial centralize of real estate investment in New Zealand and Texas brings on prevalent and large-scale bank default. Thus, Credit concentration just is a "two-edged sword". The sticking point is how to cognize credit-concentration deeply and fully use the advantage of credit-concentration while keeping away its risk.Study on the cause of credit concentration is the base of preventing. The dissertation build framework of game theory analyzing.that is evolving game theory , "0-1 "game decision and the decision of lending amount on it, the forming mechanism of credit concentration is parsed. The study of particular external and internal behavior of commercial bank in china administer to study the cause of credit concentration forming more deeply. This dissertation made analysis on the particular external environment of commercial bank in China from micro, medium and macro levels. On the aspect of the internal acts, this paper used the theory of Behavioral Finance to study from the new view the efforts on credit concentration which were made by these internal acts,which is concluded that expectation deviations and herding behavior are the source to cause the bank's loan concentration, among which, the herding behavior of casual and imitate styles was found in stock commercial banks, and the herding behavior based on reputation consideration was found in urban commercial banks.The purpose of the credit concentration's study is to reduce and avoid its risks, this paper will identify the risk of credit concentration to bank, enterprise and society, and based which to study the evolution from credit concentration to risk focus: in the case of credit concentration to individual enterprises, the acts of evolution process appears the risk focus brought by the bank credit negative external effects of the continuous lending to individual enterprises and the multiple loans; in the case of credit concentration to individual industry, the acts of evolution process appears the increase of portfolio risk brought by default correlation. Thus, the bank credit negative external effects and default correlation are the key to bring risk focus.One way to slowdown risk is to control credit concentration, which is ruled unified by laws in China. However, we should tread the rule of ceiling's centralism dialectically; the current rule of credit concentration's degree limits can't fit any situation, especially to different industries, it needs to decide credit concentration's upper limit scientifically and variously on the base of industry risks, this paper built a set of index system and PCA-logit model to estimate risk, and do risk measure to 20 industries of China's manufacturing, and based on it to set up a model to determined each industry's credit concentration limits.Finally, in order to lower the negative impact brought by credit concentration as more as possible, the paper discuss the risk prevention mechanism based on the reasons to cause credit concentration in former part.