Research On The Testing And Formation Mechanism Of China's Credit Bubble

The credit issue is a key issue facing China's economic development.In recent years,the Chinese economy has entered a critical period,and the quality of economic development has become a key concern.These are inseparable from the financial institutions' credit business and provide strong support for the real economy.Since the global financial crisis in 2008,China's credit scale has grown at a high rate,and the record highs have hit new highs.It seems that it is becoming more and more incompatible with the slowing economic growth.The questioning voice has deviated from the development of the real economy.It is getting higher and higher.Under this circumstance,measuring the credit bubble will help to judge the extent of the economy's “de-reality”,which will not only help guide the development of credit science,but also the economic and financial security.This paper firstly uses the quarterly data of “Financial Institution Credit Balance/GDP”,“State-owned Bank Credit Balance/GDP”,“Shared Bank Credit Balance/GDP”,“Shadow Bank Credit Balance/GDP” from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2018.To represent the degree of expansion of credit,the ADF test,the SADF test,and the GSADF test are used to detect whether there is a credit bubble in the sample interval.The empirical results show that GSADF has a better effect on detecting credit bubbles,and has detected the credit bubble of Chinese financial institutions,joint-stock commercial banks and shadow banks.Subsequently,this method was used to detect the existence interval of each foam.Then,the credit bubble interval obtained above is introduced into the new empirical analysis as a new dummy variable.And using the relevant indicators of the joint-stock commercial banks and macroeconomic indicators as explanatory variables,a Logit model was constructed.After regression analysis,it is found that the selected total asset logarithm,capital adequacy ratio,total loan logarithm,CPI and other indicators have a significant impact on the probability of occurrence of the credit bubble.Then,using the constructed model,the data in the sample is re-predicted.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is higher and the fitting effect of the model is better.Finally,through the theoretical and practical analysis of the credit bubble,several suggestions for China's prevention of the credit bubble are proposed from several aspects.The first is to improve the governance structure.Financial institutions must first be the best,strengthen their risk management and control capabilities,and improve their risk management awareness.The second is to adjust the credit structure.This is especially important for commercial banks.It is necessary to keep pace with policies,strengthen credit for small and micro enterprises,strengthen agricultural credit,strengthen green credit,etc.,while ensuring the scale while ensuring quality.Third,the regulatory authorities should strengthen supervision of the shadow banking system.It is necessary to guide the shadow banking step by step,prevent the growth from being too fast,and make it serve the Chinese real economy as much as possible.Finally,it is necessary to build a more comprehensive multi-level capital market.Under such a market,enterprises and financial institutions can be more transparent and more quickly achieve docking,and the real economy can achieve healthy and effective development.