A Research On Risky Evaluating, Decision-Making And Protection-System Of Afforestation Project Against Risk

Our country forestry is faced with severe challenges because of the urgency to protect ecological system and satisfy demand of timbers,and has hard tasks. The development of our forestry raises a claim to practice of risk management of afforestation project,but the practice of risk management of afforestation project is in poor situation currently .Moreover,the research on risk management of afforestation project just begins and has not taken shape theoretical system. So the research on risk management of afforestation project is of practical and theoretical meanings.The dissertation thoroughly inquires into the theory of risky decision-making and protection-system of afforestation project against risk by use of the method of qualitative and quantitative analysis,from the view of risk management research and based on the related theory of management and economy.Firstly , the dissertation puts forward the theoretical research frame of risky decision-making and protection-system of afforestation project against risk after analyzing process and mechanism of risky decision-making,construction and moving mechanism of protection-system of afforestation project against risk.Secondly,the dissertation sorts out the risks of afforestation project,probes into the risk- appraising theory of afforestation project and poses new risk- appraising method of afforestation project based on PERT theory,changing weigh theory and multiple-factors regression model by the analysis of risk features of afforestation project.Thirdly,the dissertation probes into risky decision-making theory of investment and management,puts forward new method of effectiveness risky decision-making based on dynamic state- imitating from the view of risky decision-making.Fourthly,the dissertation probes into the construction of protection-system of afforestation project against risk from the view of macroscopic,center view and microscopic stratifications separately. Finally,the dissertation embodies the achievement of theory-analysis of the dissertation by a example.