Research On The Risky Decision-Making Model Of The Distribution Network Planning And Operating Under The Smart Grid Environmentess

The energy crisis and the global warming urge the use of world energe to be-come clean, low carbon and efficient. In this condition, the State Grid is constructing its smart grid aimed at supporting large-scale clean energy access, realizing bidirec-tional interaction supply and strengthing the power supply reliability. However, the revolution in smart grid constructuion is bound to influence the structrue of distribu-tion grid and electric market. As a result, in this paper, we take the most of factors under the smart grid environment into consideration and analyze the planning and operation of distribution grid combining the multi-objective optimization and risky decison-making theory. The main contents and results are as follow.(1) Considering the connecting of distributed power and electric cars, we discuss the distribution grid planning decision-making under the smart grid environment. We build a mixed index system including qualitative and quantitative indicators. And in order to deal with the fuzziness of linguistic assessment value and the reference in risk attitude of decision makers, we propose a group decision-making method based on the Cumulative Prospect Thoery and Cloud Model.(2) As for the purchasing decision-making in more than one electric markets in distribution grid, firstly, we introduce the the electricity purchasing process in more than one electric markets. And then, on the basis, we give a multi-objective optimal method about calculating distribution grid benefit, distribution grid risk and its relia-bility. In this method, we conbine the advantages of Harmony Search (HS) and VI-KOR which can not only make up for the information loss when transforming mul-ti-objective weight into single objective information, but also the problem about how to set the original solution and how to generate the new lolutions.(3) After discussing the distribution grid planning and the electricity purchasing strategy, we analyze the electricity selling decision-making under the smart grid en-vironment. According to the time-of-use electricity price in power demand side management, we present a risky multi-criteria decision-making strategy about time-of-use electricity selling based on the Catastrophe Theory. In this strategy, the decision-making will be more feasible and objective, it can reduce the decision mak-er’s subjective fatcors and human factors in the decision making process.