| Real estate is an important part of the wealth of the entire community, its development is an important force to promote industrialization and urbanization. Real estate prices determined the wealth of the community and residents, and its volatility affects the safety of the financial system, and also affect macroeconomic stability and development. The real estate price bubble burst in Japan and Southeast Asia have been direct fuse to the economic and financial crisis. China is facing the dual challenges of the reform of the financial system and economic globalization, and there has emerged in China overheating in real estate development. Real estate prices, real estate investment and commercial housing vacancy rate continued to rise. In the government, academia and the industry there are different judgments and arguments on China's real estate price. To explore and solve these problems, it depends on in-depth study in the real estate price theory, and should not stop at the superficial perceptual knowledge, or simply copied abroad indicators. And how to analyze real estate prices into equilibrium price and bubbles is urgent problems need to resolve.This paper launched from three directions on the theoretical study of the price of real estate. First, from the micro level of the real estate market changes in supply and demand factors, the impact on real estate prices, that affect real estate demand for the model said:In the given period the real estate supply can be given as the following simple function:Supposing the real estate market is in clearing cases, then the real estate supply and demand is basically in balance, which is: This equilibrium price is that ensure the real estate market clear.So from equation (1), (2) and (3) we can get the equilibrium real estate price model:By using Beijing data, conducting empirical research found that, at this stage in the Chinese metropolis, the population is to promote long-term and short-term changes in prices, which are mainly attributable to Beijing because of the city's focusing effect. This is also available for other major cities that house prices rose corroboration, in order to stabilize prices, the government should intensify satellite towns'development which are surrounding the metropolitan area. The satellite towns divert the population, and reduce the Center City real estate supply and demand pressures. In addition, interest rates did not play the role of stabilize housing prices as imagination. Government and bank's adjustment of loan policy just increase the cost of home buyers and property owners who have the opportunity costs, and not to reduce prices or inhibit the growth of house price trends. This shows that the real estate needs of urban residents currently mainly is self-occupied housing demand, speculative demand is not for major components, and the interest rate adjustment for the self-occupied housing demand have little impact, but can only reduce social welfare. Therefore, the focus of price control should be primarily on the regulation of the supply of real estate, rather than on the suppression of demand on the real estate.Second, this article also examined the relationship between the real estate market and macroeconomic. Using H-P filtering method, this paper studied the cycle and cyclic factors in the Chinese real estate price fluctuation. Finally, as the real estate is oftern the carrier of economic bubbles, the real estate price bubble is the specific performance. The real estate price bubble in the market is the controversial spot of people. So this paper focused on the real estate price bubble, inspect the contents, characteristics and influence of the price bubble. This article also studied the formation process. Using empirical analysis, I tested and judged the real estate price bubble in Chinese cities.Abraham and Hendershott (1993)express the growth in equilibrium real house prices (in a specific city) during period t, , as a linear function of the growth in real construction costs , the growth in real income per working age adultyt , the growth in employment ,and the change in real after-tax interest rates (all growth rates are measured as differences of logarithms):After introducing the bubbles formation and correcting factors, the model describes the real growth determinants including the construction cost, employment, income, interest rates, price levels lag period:Based on the experience from abroad, this paper introduces a 1997-2004 National 30 provinces (no Tibet) annual panel data model:After the first estimate, it was found that the average wage of workers to change little real impact, not even a factor. Different with the United States, it is common in Chinese family for intergenerational income transfer in the purchase of houses. Houses prices tend to weigh the factors of the total family income is the accumulation, rather than the current personal monetary income.So China's currency incomes of workers do not change the main factors determining price changes. We reject this variable of average wage workers, the establishment of a new model as follows:The results show the estimated price changes very sensitive to changes in the employment rate. Housing costs have a significant influence on prices. Small impact in the interest rate changes on prices, and both are relevant, also shows that the Chinese people choose very small investment, the impact of interest rate changes on real evidence. China's real estate market on the current features of this policy in the final made the corresponding recommendations.This paper reviews the academic research that has been made on the price of real estate price theory, learn from the results of the research at home and abroad, using theoretical analysis and empirical research method. Borrowing from the foreign models on the basis of theoretical analysis, adjusting by the actual situation in China to improve and perfect them to China's national conditions. Then I establish theoretical model, and use China's existing data, conducting empirical testing. At last with the resuls from study above, I gived the corresponding policy recommendations. Real estate prices theories are still developing, although in this paper covers most of the range in the theoretical study of real estate price, but there are still many needs of further in-depth study.
|
PDF Full Text Request