Shanghai Real Estate Bubble Analysis

Shanghai real estate sector has entered prosperous stage since the 21st century, the proportion of the added value of real estate sector in GDP has risen from 5.5% in 2000 to 8.36% in 2004. As the underpinning industry of Shanghai economy, real estate sector is vital. But since 2003, housing sales witnessed rapid price growth for years. Especially in the first quarter of 2005, the growth of housing price has reached the surprising rate of 19.1%. Much concern has arisen on the real estate sector with more insiders and outsiders on the topic of bubble phenomena. The thesis would start discussion on the real estate bubble problem, discuss the shape, the development and the bad effect of the real estate bubble and analyze the present real estate condition. Econometric models would be designed in order to estimate the bubble in Shanghai real estate sector. Then, the thesis would analyze the formation of the real estate bubble of Shanghai and put forward some effective measures after analyzing the effect of macro control in Shanghai.In the first place, the concept of bubble would be introduced, and definition of economy bubble and bubble economy would be also delivered. Afterwards, some notable real estate bubble stories would be enumerated. The theoretical analysis of real estate bubble would be processed and the present research method about real estate bubble would be also summarized.Afterwards, pilot study of the Shanghai real estate bubble would be conducted. The present status of Shanghai real estate market would be first introduced, and discussion of the present bubble of Shanghai real estate would be also showed. Traditional bubble measures about the real estate would be used in the inspection of Shanghai real estate bubble with the consequence of existing bubble problem in Shanghai residential housing market.Further attention would be paid on the Shanghai real estate bubble mainly...