Study On Fiscal Risks Resulting From Governmental External Debts In Xinjiang

Governmental external debt is a double-edged sword. Used properly, it can introduce advanced management experience, technology and equipment, and promote economic development; but used improperly, it may be difficult to achieve the anticipated economic benefits, and lead to local fiscal risks.On the basis of analysing the related documents, under the guidance of theory such as public finance, econometrics, regional economics, and adopting some analysis methods such as empirical and normative analysis methods, qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, static and dynamic analysis methods, macro and micro analysis methods, and factor analysis method, the study has a comprehensive analysis of the status and causes of fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts in Xinjiang, and proposes risk control system.This study comprises three parts: theoretical analysis, status analysis and problem solving.The first part is the theoretical analysis, including chapter 1 and 2. This part theoretically defines the concept of the fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts, which is the possibility of the fiscal pressure resulting from expenditure growth because the debtors subject to a variety of uncertainties can not pay off the governmental external debts. Moreover, the fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts have some characteristics such as objectivity, sociality, non-equilibrium, conductivity, and concealment. Subsequently, this part analyzes the relevant documents on domestic and (governmental) external debts.The second part is the status analysis, including chapter 3 to 5. Firstly, this part analyzes the utilization of the governmental external debts in Xinjiang, and analyzes the specific performance of the fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts in Xinjiang, that is, the future various measurable and unmeasurable debt pressures, not only affect the size and structure of fiscal expenditure, but also play the full impact of fiscal functions, and transmit the risk to their superiors; Secondly, using 10 specific indexes, this part builds the evaluation index system of the local fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts, and combined with the use of factor analysis method, the part evaluates and sorts the risk status of all the districts and counties which have been using the governmental external debts. Finally, this part explains the complexity of risk causes by analyzing the endogenous factors, the exogenous factors, the management factors and policy factors.The third part is chapter 6,that is to solve the problems. Aiming at the risk causes, the chapter mainly puts forward the system of controlling the fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts, including perfecting the laws and regulations system and improving the budget management system, reconstructing the normative public finance system under the conditions of market economy, establishing the scientific and democratic decision mechanism, enhancing the organizational management level and improving the projects and funds'operation mechanism, building the positive and secure debt settlement mechanism. Only through multi-directional and multi-level control strategy, can projects using governmental external debts achieve expected benefits, can the fiscal risks down to the lowest level.