The Research On The Analysis Of The Risk Evaluation And Its Prevention And Control In Local Government Debts

After the European sovereign debt crisis, debt risk has become a hot research. In our country, the amount of the local government debts is large, and the reason of the causes of local government debts is also complex. So there are huge risks in local government debts. The government audit has done a rare research in this issue. And the function of the government audit in the local government debts is now still stay in regular audit supervision. The government audit's "immune system" function hasn't been developed.In this paper, the research on the analysis of the risk prevention and control in local government debts and its audit evaluation is focused on micro level and laid special stress on description and analysis of Z town's basic situation and characteristics. This paper adopts the research method of combining analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy synthetic evaluation and factor analysis. It uses four dimensions, scale risk, structure risk, debt risk and external risk, and in each dimension selected four indexes, totally twelve indexes to do the research. Through the research, I try to build an audit evaluation system which can also prevent and control local government debt risks and take Z town as an example to test the validity of the system. And last part of this paper is some suggestions of how to prevent and control the local government debt risks from three aspects, external constraints, internal management and audit evaluation according to the management status of the local government debt and the calculation result of the indexes.