A Study Of China Personal Credit Management System Construction

China's reform goes to deepen and deepen and national economy develops better and faster after it came into 21st. With the entrance of WTO, China blends into world economy system step by step, economy globalization degree rising higher and higher. But under this background the distemperedness of our social credit system and prevalent credit disequilibrium stands out to restrict economy developing healthily and perfect socialism market economy system.Personal credit system constitutes an important part of the social credit system. Personal credit system plays an important role in keeping away credit risk and developing personal credit industry. This paper will concentrate on the construction of China personal credit system. Personal credit scoring is the core of personal credit management system. It can accelerate the verifying of consumer credit, quantify personal credit risk, and push personal credit industry all-around development.At the beginning of the introduction of this dissertation it gives definition of credit, consumer credit and personal credit, personal credit management system and social credit management system, personal credit scoring and personal credit evaluation. It also induces theoretical basis of personal credit within philosophy, ethnics and law. Then it discusses historical evolvement of personal credit management institutional at historical materialism visual angle. It draws an conclusion that personal credit was born at the end of primitive society, but not with the birth of the human beings. At the end of the introduction it emphasizes the importance of establishing and robust personal credit management system to construct socialism harmonious society.Chapter 1 focuses on three main personal credit management systems in developed countries: American pattern, European pattern and Japanese pattern from personal credit registry, personal credit evaluation system and law basis of personal credit. Any pattern can completely suitable for China reality. We should construct personal credit management system with Chinese characteristics according to merits of these three patterns.The utility functions are used to measure benefit tendency of borrower and bank to research credit rationing in personal credit market, based on asymmetric information structure of corporate credit market. When interest rate increases, adverse selection and moral hazard I will emerge before loans are granted and their function are chosen respectively, which will cause credit rationing in personal credit market. Moreover, it clarifies personal credit scoring can effectively improve information structure of both sides, resolve credit rationing, and restraint moral hazard II directly. The suggestions concerned are given in nowadays personal credit market at the end.Chapter 3 designs personal credit scoring technologies. The whole personal credit scoring task is divided into 3 processes: preparation before scoring, scoring or evaluation, test after scoring. The main content of preparation before scoring is selection of characteristics, which mainly uses Logistic regression, contingency table analysis and artificial neural network. Personal credit scoring and evaluation mainly uses general discriminant analysis, refined decision tree model, improved genetic algorithm, probability neural network and behavioral scoring model. The effect test of personal credit scoring includes fitting effect test and fitness test. The former involves right prediction rate, Kappa consistency test, ROC curve, and the latter includes likelihood ratio test, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, etc. Most tests get ideal results.Chapter 4 discusses China overall construction of personal credit management system in detail. Personal credit management system includes external restrict, internal self-discipline, personal credit database construction, personal credit evaluation, personal credit industry, personal credit risk early warning, measure and transfer. On the side of external restrict, we suggest make special personal credit management law to protect privacy in personal credit information collection, saving, using and evaluation. We suggest set up special credit administration agency—China Credit Supervision and Management Committee, and one of its sections should be in charge of personal credit administration. We also propose to set up special personal credit industry self-discipline organization to be responsible for each member unit's coordination and self-discipline. It discusses the quality and origin of personal credit information and build way of personal credit information database. It takes credit card, personal housing loan and student loan for example to discuss the problems in personal credit industry. At the end of thin chapter it gives a method to measure personal default rate, introduces management principles of consumer credit risk in Basel II, and takes assets securitization and personal bankrupt for example to elaborate personal credit risk transfer and offset.The last chapter rethinks newly American junior debt crises at a visual angle from personal credit. At first it reviews the breakout process of junior debt crises.Then it takes empirical tests on interest rate and credit rationing, and adverse selection before credit rationing according to the conclusion of chapter 2. At last it is the enlightenment of junior debt crises to our personal credit management—guard against potential macro-economy risk and assets securitization risk.At last it draws the conlusions of whole dissertation and gives prospects for future research.