The Theoretical And Empirical Study On The Factors Influencing The Tourism Economic Growth Of China

In 2000, it was an important milestone of tourism economic growth that the income of tourism gross achieved 451.9 billion Yuan and broke through 5% of the proportion of GDP for the first time in China. Up to the present, it has become an important topic to study the inherent rules of tourism economy development because of more and more important role in the national economic system.In this dissertation, the multidisciplinary theory to the inherent rules of tourism economic growth such as economics, econometrics, macroeconomics and industrial economics have been used. There were three steps in the research process. Firstly, the development of tourism economy with macroscopic view on the history angle in international range has been studied, and the reasons why tourism industry produced and developed have been also discussed. Secondly, basing the development of tourism industry in China from 1992 to 2005 as demonstration, it was found out the factors influencing the large-caliber tourism economic growth in our country through principal components and regression analysis. And then the main factors which gained from last step was used to calculate their contribution rate for the small-caliber tourism economic growth of China, and their motion rules in space and their impact on tourism economy also have been deeply studied. Finally, a method of system dynamics to simulate and forecast was applied, and the suggestion of the tourism economic growth of China has been provided.The main innovation points of the dissertation are as follows,(1)A mechanism of tourism economic growth which had dual power of system impetus and market drawing has been proposed in this dissertation. Through analyzing the general process of national and international tourism economic growth, and studying the development route of tourism economy since our country established, three basic conditions of the tourism economic growth have been put forward. It was that three basic conditions that the income which civilian could control increasing, the certain tourism leisure time and the tourism wish which substituted between the leisure and the work. On subjective, the government policy guidance was the powerful catalyst of tourism economic growth for the country.(2)The capital investment was the main factor of tourism economic growth in China. Through researching the tourism economic system with three levels, it was concluded that the income which civilian could control, the capital investment, the system factor, the ability of tourism knowledge innovation and so on led to the tourism economic growth in our country. By the result of Solow equation regression, it was known that the tourism economic growth of our country depend on the capital investment and the degree of dependency on the capital deepen unceasingly. However the efficiency of the capital investment was degressive actually. On the other hand, comparing the result having been researched to eastern, western and central area, the efficiency of element of production investment in the eastern area was higher than in the western area and central area. Where the tourism industrial production level was higher, the efficiency of element of production was higher.(3) At present, the status of the tourism economic growth was in the track which from unbalance to balance on the view of its space pattern. In the dissertation, Gini's coefficient model and the coefficient of variation model have been constructed. Basing the small-caliber tourism development data of our country from1992 to 2005 as the demonstration, it was concluded that the process of the tourism space pattern was gradually from unbalance to balance in our country.