Research On China Real Estate Confidence Indices

Real estate industry has become the pillar industry of national economy of China. The healthy development of real estate market plays an important role in economic growth, the adjustment of industrial structure, and the improvement of people's living level. In recent years, the rapid increase of real estate investment and housing price have already attacted great attentions of the government, experts and real estate professionals. This research presented two aspects of reasons for this: one is the market disability, another is the governmental disability. Due to the characteristics of real estate market, it is not a complete market, governmental macro-controls are much more important to assure the healthy development of the real estate market than its self-control. At present the government constitutes control policies only for special problems appearing in the real estate market. Following this, these policies appear certain lagging, and can not solve problems occuring in time. Of course, these cannot predict some problems which happen possibly. It is a serious problem how the government can regulate and control real estate market effectively and efficiently? Two ways to do this: one is to reduce or eliminate the possibilities of problems happening using the information-oriented means; another is to gain the pre-warning signal through employing the pre-warning method. The government has recognized the significance of the information-oriented and forecasting and supervising systems for the real estate market to assist the macro-control gradually, however, there is still no a complete information-oriented mechanism and means in China. In western developed countries, the system of real estate macro-control based on the information-oriented mechanism has taken on its powerful effect. Considering this, this research established a suit of real estate confidence indices based upon the current status of Chinese real estate market, in order to assist government with macro-control, developers with investment decisions and consumers with house consumption.Based on the overseas and domestic status of researches, this paper summarized some problems of domestic relevant researches and overseas experiences for this research, presented the technical framework of constructing China real estate indices and its architecture, mainly including the efficient supply and demand index, the latent demand index and the latent supply index, and analyzed the functions of this index system and the key technologies adopted to establish these indices; for the efficient supply and demand index, twenty-five factors influencing the efficient supply and demand of housing were analyzed using questionnaire method and Factor Analysis (FA) method, four main factors were determined, viz. population, purchasing power, price, and market, and relevant index models are established; for the latent demand index, a questionnaire was designed to measure the running status, booming degree, and equilibrium degree of real estate market held by six groups consumers, and the relevant index models were constructed via employing the Indices of Consumer Spirit (ICS); for the latent supply index, the main factors affecting the latent supply ability of housing are analyzed and determined, namely the land inventory, the land increment and the capacity rate, and their index models were established; the prediction methods of these indices in all levels were compared and selected using the data collected from Shenzhen real estate market; based on the data collected from Shenzhen real estate market, these indices in all levels were tested and their prediction models were also tested, 1999 as their basic time.From the case study, it is shown that these indices established in this research had better reflected phenomena and problems existing in Shenzhen real estate market, assisted the government in making macro-control policies and guided the investment and consumption for housing to assure the healthy development of real estate market. Therefore, this research takes on a good future.