The Research On China Real Estate Confidence Indices Under New Situation

The real estate industry plays an important role in economic growth. The real estate market has a long industry chain, strongly driving economic development; and at the same time, it is an important livelihood project, relating to people's housing issues. It is not good for socio-economic harmonious development that the real estate industry continues depressing or the price rises rapidly.In recent years, great governmental macro-control has been made in Chinese real estate market, especially in 2010, including raising the down payment ratio, the implementation of the restrictions on the purchase. In 2011, the government expanded the scope of restricted cities, and increased the affordable housing construction, which significantly affected the buyers' onfidence. We have been using the new system of housing price statistics since January 2011, substantially changing the real estate price index of confidence, which making a new system of real estate confidence index in urgent need. Based on the current status of Chinese real estate market, this paper researched a new real estate confidence index system.First, through summarizing confidence index theory, introducing the confidence index and related real estate market theories, the first two chapters laid the foundation for the follow-up study.Second, pointed out the new features affecting the real estate market at the present stage, and established real estate confidence index system under the new situation. The index system includes effective demand and supply index, potential demand index and potential supply index. For the effective demand and supply index, the factors were gained by extensive market research and summarizing lots of papers, and the weight was gained by expert survey method; for the potential demand index, we used consumer sentiment index method to analyze the potential demand of consumer; for the potential supply index, the main factors were selected to establish this sub-index. Onthe basis of he three sub-indices, we build real estate confidence index system using synthetic index method.Finally, taking Dalian City for example, through the data of he first and second quarters in 2011, testified the availability of e index system, and gave some reasonable suggestion.