Studies On Trade Effects Of The RMB Exchange Rate's Adjustment

Whether the disputation about devaluation of the RMB during the Asian financial crisis or the pressure on appreciation of the RMB in recent years ,the focus is the relationship of the RMB exchange rate and China's foreign good trade. Under this blackground, rightly analyzing the relationship of the RMB exchange rate' adjustment and China's foreign good trade is concern to the reform of the RMB exchange rate' regime and to the sustainable development of China's foreign trade,but concerning to the development of opening to the outside world and to the construction of harmonious society. Therefore, studying on trade effects of the RMB exchange rate's adjustment has the important theortical and practical significance.This dissertation studies on trade effects of the RMB exchange rate's adjustment from the theoretical and empirical analysis views at home and abroad scholars of research results basis.The first is to analyze the path of the RMB exchange rate's adjustment on the view of history. The result shows that all the RMB exchange rate regime's reform during different terms is a rational choice because the exchange rate regime has not a fixed model and can promote economy development and keep internal and external equilibrium of China's economy.The second is to intrudce the disputation about the RMB exchange rate.On the one hand, it is the disputation about devaluation of the RMB exchange rate during the Asian financial crisis; On the other hand, in early 21th century, the exchange rate of main countries in the world is greatly adjusted,but in the meantime, the China's faster growth of goods export ,then initiates the pressure and expection on appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. Whether the devaluation or the appreciation, the focus of the disputation is equilibrium level of the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, this dissertation accounts the level of the RMB exchange rate on the arithmetic weighted value of 17 trade partners, and the result shows the undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate.The third is to analyze the effects of the RMB exchange rate's adjustment with elastic method and co-integration method from the theoretical and empirical analysis views. The RMB exchange rate's adjustment less affects on trade total quantity of China because China's trade demand elasticity does not meet the Marshall-Lerner condition; Because processing trade is different to general trade, the RMB exchange rate's adjustment greatly affects the processing trade; Import and export amount of foreign investment enterprises occupies a important ratio in trade total quantity of China, the RMB exchange rate's adjustment less affects its,the main cause is the foreign investment in China;The RMB exchange rate's adjustment has the different effect on East Middle West Region of China; The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is not able to improve the trade balance of trade partners.At last, the dissertation analyzes the trend about the appreciation ofthe RMB exchange rate. It shows that it is difficult to eliminate the trend about the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in a short time. Then, the dissertation suggests to steady the trend about the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in a short time and to choose the freely floating rate regime as the aim of the RMB exchange rate's reform.