Exchange Rate Changes And Empirical Research Of China's International Trade Relations

As essential constituent part of price system。exchange rate will exert important influences on a county’s foreign trade because its fluctuation can change the comparative price of import and export goods. With the termination of the Bretton Woods System. The fixed exchange rate system has gone to the end. Before china’s reform。the amount of trade is relatively small. The fluctuation of the exchange rate has little impact on our import and export. However, with the development of the Society, things have changed a lot. Especially considering the fact that China’s entry into WTO. Well, whether the RMB exchange rate could influence the China’s exported trade?The first chapter,the relevant theory, research literature are briefly reviewed. Literature focus on the main issues of foreign exchange rate fluctuations will affect the trade balance has a significant influence of the differences; and domestic literature focuses more on research is subject to comply with the Marshall-Lerner condition, that is, the RMB exchange rate movements on the trade impact of China’s how. The innovation of this paper is the use of vector autoregressive models empirical analysis. At the same time drawing on at home and abroad to exchange rate volatility and the relationship between import and export trade volume of research in theoretical analysis of exchange rate changes under the framework of the impact on the import and export of direction, and so on.The second chapter is the impact of exchange rate changes on trade balance of theoretical analysis. Set out the main contents of the exchange rate changes on trade balance theory of the development of the impact of the exchange rate changes on trade balance theory and elastic analysis of the impact of the exchange rate changes on trade balance effects of exchange rate pass incomplete. Mainly elastic analysis theory, including the flexibility of the basic concepts, the Marshall-Lerner condition and the devaluation and the time-delay reaction-J-curve effect.In ChapterⅢ, this paper collects the related datum from the year of 1985 to 2005 and analyzes how the RMB exchange rate influences the China’s exported trade positively. Quantitative methods include ADF Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. Then, I positively analyze the influence of the RMB exchange rate on the China’s exported trade in recent 20 years.In ChapterⅣ, this paper makes comments on the influence of RMB exchange rate on China’s export and gives some suggestion on the basis of the results of above analysis. That the RMB appreciation will have a negative impact on China’s foreign exchange reserves, attract foreign investment, export trade and industry organizations.Therefore, at present China should keep the RMB exchange rate that will appreciate in a short time out of pressure, keep its stability in a reasonable and balanced position, reform the molding system of RMB step by step. So we must control the rational use of foreign investment, improve the industrial structure, and should enhance the exported goods in technical contents and additional value, use the monetary policy and monetary policy to curb the appreciation of the renminbi.Chapter V of this paper are summarized and reflection, and pointed out that the development of future research.