Research On The Telecom Industry Development Trend Based On The Multi-Dimensional Convergence

Nowadays, the hot topic among telecommunication field is the future and the performance of the telecom industry and the telecom operators. What will be the development trend of the telecom industry in the future years? How will the revenue of the telecom operators collected from the main services change? What are the attributions that bring the new trend to the telecom industry? How to explore those reasons and to raise the feasible solutions? Therefore, the solution based on status quo—multi-dimensional convergence—prediction of the development trend is one possibility for the telecom industry.Under the above circumstance, this dissertation, through the analysis on the status quo of the telecom industry and the opportunities and challenges of the telecom operators, proposes that convergence is the future direction for the telecom industry, and refines the importance of the multi-dimensional convergence for the telecom industry and the operators from amount of convergence formulas. This dissertation studies from three perspectives, and raises that the convergence of service network platform is the basis of the whole convergence, and the telecom operators should handle well the allocation for enterprise resources and the incentive for the service providers (SP) or content providers (CP). The industry convergence will bring in new development growth point. The multi-dimensional convergence will trigger the transformation of the telecom operators, which requires for prediction of the development trend of the telecom industry. The main content and innovations are concluded as the followings:1,Thoroughly discuss the concept and the features of multi-dimensional convergence, and illustrate that the multi-dimensional convergence is a distinct attribution that leads the future development direction of the telecom industry. There are three aspects for the multi-dimensional convergence formula:The progress of technology (mainly refers to the convergence of service network platform) makes the telecom operators access the new services on the old service network platform. The convergence of service network platform provides the basis for the industry convergence and the service convergence of the telecom operators.The service convergence will bring new services for the telecom operators. Then, it is worthy to study that how can the telecom operators effectively allocate the resources among those services. The fact that the multi-dimensional convergence leads to the diversified services emphasizes the substantial relationship between the telecom operators and the SP.The Internet is endowed with specialties as free, sharable, and fair. Thus, the convergence between the telecom industry and the Internet industry is the trend of the times. The telecom operators should be inclusive with an open mind facing the Internet services.2,The convergence of service network platform is the basis for the multi-dimensional convergence, and brings new opportunities for the telecom industry.First propose the evolution road for the convergence of service network platform, that is to evolve from the Intelligent Network service platform into the Softswitch service platform, and end in the IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) service platform.Based on the convergence of service network platform, demonstrate that the telecom operators could utilize the convergenced platform for the "forward assisted by backward" charging policy through the SP.Discuss how to guarantee the service subdivision and the service quality ensurence based on the convergence of the service network platform through the QoS control.Taking the LBS (Locate Based Service System) as an example to introduce the features of the new services brought by the convergence of the service network platform.3,In order to handle the increasing new services brought by the service convergence, the telecom operators must properly deal with the allocation of the enterprise resources and the relationship with the SP.Taking the investment optimization of one telecom operator as an example, put forward an investment optimization model, and analyze how could the telecom operators effectively allocate investment on various services.It is an essential research topic that how to deal with the relationship between the telecom operators and the SP for the telecom industry in the future years. As a result of the multi-dimensional convergence, the telecom operators have to rely more on the SP to provide new kinds of services to attract more revenue.Based on the traditional incentive theory, a multi-task principal-agent model is proposed specially for the relationship between the telecom operators and the SP. The inconsistent interests and information asymmetry between the telecom operators and the SP can easily cause the illegal behaviors of the SP. The relationship between the telecom operators and the SP is a multi-task princepal-agent relationship. The design of the principal-agent contract considers three tasks perspectives on the incentive for the SP. The first is the observable number of subscribers developed by the SP, services, the number of subscribers, and the incremental services. The second is the observable credit marks and rank order. The last is the observable innovation ability of the SP. Then, this model is applied to analyze the influence and improvement of the layered classified management regulations implemented by China Mobile.After discussing how to promote a single SP using the multi-task principal-agent model, it is well-timed to realize mat the telecom operators have to cooperate with more man one SP in reality. Therefore, the multi-task principal-agent model should not only be employed to activate one SP, but also should design favorable incentive mechanism to activate more than one SP. Rank-order tournaments can preferable solve this problem. First discuss the relative performance incentive mechanism, then, introduce the connotation of rank-order tournaments, and finally, apply this method into the analysis on the relationship between the telecom operators and the SP. A rank-order tournaments model is proposed for one telecom operator and three SP, as well as the positive analysis. One innovation is to introduce the influence factor to represent the reaction among SP. Finally, this model demonstrates that the layered classified management is reasonable for the telecom operators to supervise the SP.4,The nonlinear time series forecasting models based on wavelet neural network whose activation function is continuous wavelet function are established in telecommunications to forecast the gross service and the number of users. Comparing the actual data with the forecast data, the forecasting models based on wavelet neural network are more practical than the traditional ones. With the predictions of gross service and number of users, the future trend of development in telecommunications is obtained.The basic concept, principle and method classification of economic forecasting are introduced in the thesis. Then neural network, wavelet analysis theory and wavelet neural network are detailed explored, and the advantages of wavelet neural network used in forecasting are also discussed.As telecommunications plays more significant role in the national economy, it is necessary to give more efficient method for forecasting the development of telecommunication. To build wavelet basis neural network, the sigmoid function is replaced with the wavelet and adaptive learning rate and initialization of parameters are also used to obtain high probability and high convergence speed.When a model of wavelet neural network is established to forecast the gross service in telecommunications, subjective guided data is introduced in consideration of the impact of industry convergence on future telecom industry. The subjective guided data can overcome the shortcomings of normal trend extrapolation model which can not reflect environmental variation and make the forecasting result more practical and reflect the future more reasonably.