| In the recent 50 years, the development of petrochemical enterprises all around the world have been in the ascendant, and small and medium-sized petrochemical enterprises in China are playing an important role in China's economy. It is imperative to establish the strict credit evaluation system to settle the financing problems, to normalize business behaviors and to prevent credit risks in the small and medium-sized petrochemical enterprises. Since the credit evaluation theory started to be used in the late middle ages of 19th century, more standard index evaluation system and credit grading system have been set up, which has been carried forward along with the expanding economy. The method of credit evaluation has experienced the development changes from the traditional to modern statistic techniques, from qualitative to quantitative and in the scientific combination of qualitative and quantitative evaluation, and has been promoted and improved step by step. This essay put forward the multifactor and multivariate discriminant analysis theory according to the systematic review of the traditional, multivariate, capital market, financial derivative instrument, the model of centralized credit risk evaluation methods, defined the basic concept, explained the general logistics and demonstrated the general procedures for performing multifactor and multivariate discriminant analysis. In consideration of the feature of the rapid trade monopoly, trade barrier and capital-intensive in petrochemical industry, the standards for the small and medium-sized petrochemical enterprises are defined. The factors index of the credit evaluation on the small and medium-sized petrochemical enterprises are analyzed according to the essential points of credit risk. The credit evaluation index is classified into basic quality, capital strength, business management ability, development ability and the environment of the situation on the basis of innovation of the traditional 5C evaluation methods. The credit evaluation index system used by the small and medium-sized petrochemical enterprises is finalized, and the grading standards are constituted in combination with specialist research ,variation coefficient and correlation coefficient methods so that the thought of normalizing trade grading system is opened up. Under two decision-making circumstances of overall evaluation on the enterprise credit and immediate pilot evaluation, the apply of fuzzy evaluation and hierarchy evaluation methods are raised to build the model to deal with the overall credit evaluation on the small and medium-sized petrochemical enterprises in terms of multifactor and multilayer conditions as well as the design process and calculating and testing methods are given. The Logit PD (probability of default)model is developed into multivariate accumulation credit grade probability model, the application of principle component analysis method processed the multivariate dimensionality deduction, the efficiency of operation is enhanced as the utmost basic data information is kept, which establishes the basis to measure the credit grade by scientific quantitative calculation. The application of example has verified the multifactor and multilayer fuzzy overall evaluation method and multivariate logit accumulation probability model, and their consistency has been compared with and inspected, which the feasibility and scientificity of applying the two models is also fully illustrated. Based on the credit evaluation and in accordance with credit risk evaluation requirement of the commercial bank, the logit model is provided to the commercial bank for their credit risk evaluation on the small and medium-sized petrochemical enterprises after practice and testing of the sample model. BP Neural Network in the calculation is designed , through the test and practice and in comparison with logit fuzzy operational method, it is practical, scientific and effective to use these two models to implement credit risk evaluation. |
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