Quantitative Study On The Change Of Increasing Of Revenue In China

The Growth of tax revenue has experienced three stages from Chinese reforming and opening in 1978, which are harmoniously with the economic development from 1978 to 1984 by and large, followed up with slow down in ten years, and then much faster in recent ten years from 1995.The tax researcher worried about the big variation of ten years slowing down, and puzzled with the ten years rocketing. Regardless of the scholars and the practiser are exploring the reason behind. However, for the complexity of the causes affecting tax increasing, until now, no clear explanation has been discussed. The key to solve this problem is how to separate the effects of the economy, tax administration and tax system. We need to analyze the effects of the three factors mentioned above individually not mixed them together, we then can get the right judgement of the reason for changes of tax increasing rate.We choose the tax effort index (TEI) to measure the efficiency of tax administration. Through constructing the yearly TEI, we can study efficiency of tax administration quantitively. Furthermore, we also can analyze the relationship between TEI and the increasing rate of tax revenue. We use the built-in tax elasticity to measure the effects of tax system acting on the increasing rate of tax revenue. Theoretically, if tax system is stable, the built-in tax elasticity will be stable. On the contrary, it will be unstable. So we can calculate the theoretical increasing rate of tax revenue decided by tax system, considering the real increasing rate of GDP. So we can analyze the effects of tax system acting on the increasing rate of tax revenue quantitively. If we deduct the built-in tax elasticity from the tax buoyancy, we can obtain the tax elasticity based on tax administration. Then, we also obtain the theoretical increasing rate influenced by tax administration. We can separate the effects of tax administration and tax administration system. At the same time, we have verified the main conclusion drawn above.In summary, we have established framework to analyze the causes of changes of tax increasing rate, and further study still needed, if we explore the relationship more deeply. The dissertation has six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction of the research background, content, literature review, framework, methodology, innovation and limitation of the paper.In second chapter, we adjust the effect of the influential point in the time- series data of tax revenue, and obtain the adjusted data of tax revenue. In addition, we eliminate the part which can not be taxed from GDP, so we get the taxable GDP. Up to now, we can study the relationship between GDP and taxation, from four angles including the raw GDP and the raw tax revenue, the raw GDP and the adjusted tax revenue, the taxable GDP and the raw tax revenue, the taxable GDP and the adjusted tax revenue, from three dimension including the gross, the increment, and the increasing rate, in order to obtain the robust relationship between tax revenue and GDP. Furthermore, we analyzed the relationship between the different components of GDP and tax revenue. We then discussed the causes of changes of tax increasing rate primarily in order to light the research direction for the follow chapters.According to the research finding obtained in second chapter, the causes of changes of tax increasing rate can be ascribed to the changes of tax policy. Here, tax policy includes two aspects of tax system and tax administration. So the main goal is how to separate the effects of the two aspects mentioned above in the third and fourth chapter.In the third chapter, we will construct TEI to measure the changes of tax administration and analyze the relationship with tax revenue. We analyzed the measurement of tax administration and its effects deeply. We designed the appraisal scale of mentality and environment in order to find out the factors influencing the effort of tax collecting under the precondition that the measurement of tax collecting have not changed. We also can find that the difference of the behavior goal of the tax collectors between the different groups. The relationship between TEI and the effort of tax collecting has been analyzed.In the fourth chapter, we calculated the built-in tax elasticity to measure the effects of tax system acting on the increasing rate of tax revenue. So we can obtain the theoretical increasing rate of tax revenue decided by tax system, and compare with the real increasing rate. We deeply analyzed the relationship between the gross elasticity and that of turn over tax, income tax and other tax. If we deduct the built-in tax elasticity from the tax buoyancy, we can obtain the tax elasticity based on tax administration. Furthermore, we also obtain the theoretical increasing rate influenced by tax administration. We can separate the effects of tax administration and tax system. At the same time, we have verified the main conclusion drawn in the third chapter. In the fifth chapter, on the base of discussion above, we quantitively describe the causes of changes of the gross tax revenue, the increment, and the increasing rate to explain the causes of changes of taxation.In the final, the conclusions have been made in chapter six, we summary it as: The output of economy decides the gross tax revenue, the level of tax administration decides the increasing rate of tax revenue. According to conclusions obtained above, the dissertation put forward the recommendation.