Shandong Tax Revenues Over Gdp Growth

It has been publicly noted as a sensitive issue in tax theory field , which tax growth rate is higher than GDP growth rate.Firstly, this article analyses the relation between tax and the component of GDP in theory. Economy is the source of tax revenue can be explained as follows: tax source depends on economy, taxable capacity depends on tax source and tax system, and tax revenue depends on taxable capacity, the degree of tax administration and the consciousness to pay tax. It establishes the model of revenue dependence and analyses the synchronization of tax and GDP through the model, concludes that elasticity coefficient certainly exceed 1 and tax increase rate will be higher than GDP increase rate if macro tax burden become higher, on the contrary, elasticity coefficient is certainly less than 1 and tax revenue increase rate is lower than GDP increase rate if macro tax burden become lower. Thereby, the relationship between elasticity coefficient and macro tax burden become more clearly. Through factor analysis,it separate the increase of tax revenue into tax revenue increase from growth of actual GDP and rise in price and macro tax burden. It systematically analyses the factor that tax revenue increase faster than GDP in the aspect of economic structure, economic profit, import and export, tax system, tax administration and governmental expenditure etc. It establishes the model of tax revenue increase dependence and elasticity coefficient dependence by summarizing the factor of tax increase and tax increase rate exceeding GDP increase rate, and simplifies the model according to the relation of macro tax burden and elasticity coefficient.Secondly, based on the model of tax revenue dependence, the model of tax revenue increase dependence and elasticity coefficient dependence and the simplified model of elasticity coefficient, making use of tax data .economic and statistics data from 1994 to 2003, this article analyses the changing tendency of Shandong state revenue and GDP by positive analysis. The analysis result is as follows: Shandong state tax revenue increase faster than GDP, the changing tendency is similar and the gross quantity is very relevant. Classified by tax categories, The high growth of value-add tax and consumption tax that are collected by the customs office, and income tax, is the key factor that state tax revenue increase faster than GDP. Classified by enterprise register type, The high tax revenue growth of shareholding enterprises, foreign investment enterprise and private enterprise is the key factor that state tax revenue increase faster than GDP. By analyzing the increase of tax revenue from growth of actual GDP and rise in price and macro tax burden, we discover that tax revenue growth is main from the rise in macro tax burden. In a long period, price has little influence to tax revenue increase. By estimating the taxable capacity andcollecting rate of domestic add-value tax, analyzing taxable GDP rate and collecting rate o f d omestic a dd-value t ax, w e d iscover t hat, from 1 9941 o 2 003, b y r eason o f taxable GDP rate of domestic add-value tax continue to increase, in the situation of collecting rate upswing and descent, the macro tax burden increase year by year, and make the elasticity coefficient over 1, tax revenue growth rate over the GDP increase rete. By analyzing the relation of collecting rate and it's change, macro tax burden and it's change, and elasticity coefficient, we find that collecting rate, the change of macro tax burden and elasticity coefficient is high positively relative, however, the relative degree of collecting rate, macro tax burden and elasticity coefficient is lower. At the same time, it establishes the regression analysis model with the variable of collecting rate, the change of macro tax burden and elasticity coefficient.Lastly, making use of the positive analysis data, this article establishes a regression analysis and prediction model of the whole state tax revenue with a variable of the second and third industry, and establishes a regression analysis and prediction model of the domestic add-value tax revenue with the variable of GDP, taxable GDP rate and collecting rate. By predicting and analyzing the tax revenue, we discover that, GDP structure continuing to improve and taxable GDP rate rising on and on, make Shandong state tax revenue increasing quickly, macro tax burden rising year by year, elasticity coefficient exceeding 1, tax revenue having a higher growth than GDP . The increasing rate of Domestic add-value tax revenue will have a little descent, which is 60% of the whole state tax revenue, but it can be synchronous to GDP. Percentage of income tax revenue will increase, and percentage of value-add tax revenue will descend, that is the changing tendency of state tax revenue structure in the future.On the whole, in the period of china's industrialization step becoming more faster, and on the condition of stable tax system, it is a normal phenomenon that tax revenue increases faster than GDP. According to the principle of simple tax system, extensive tax base, lower tax rate and strict administration, reforming the tax system, decreasing the lawful tax rate and i ncreasing the collecting rate, will be favorable to promote fair competition among market competitor and efficiency of source distribution, and to promote harmonious development in economy and society. It is a inevitable choice.