| After 20 years of rapid development, the economy of China has entered a new stage with the phenomena of excess capacity becoming prevalent and ever-present. The third industrial general investigation of China showed that, at present, the use rate of production capacity for almost 500 kinds of productions was below 60%, and the idle rates of equipments in machining and home appliance industries were nearly 40%-50%. The central working conference on economy in late 2005 has ensured the structural readjustment of excess capacity industries as a main task and the general meeting of State Council of China has disposed the readjustment of the excess industries. Excess capacity and the excess of finance fluidity have become two important problems in the development of modern economy. Since the reform and opening of China, the enterprises have been in an environment of dramatic transformation with the spring up of high technologies, the rapid shortening of life circle for productions and the intense market competition. The producers could not regulate the deploy conditions in time since the production markets and production conditions changed dramatically. Thus the problems of the idleness of fixed assets, the circulation inaction of floating capital, too much redundant personnel and the expectation error of Intertemporal decision often occurred which inevitably lead to the decrease of disposition capacity of production essentials. The research on excess capacity is meaningful since it will improve disposition capacity of resources for industries and the risk precautions.The usage insufficiency of production capacity has become a common working status for industries because of the existence of excess capacity. There are various expressions and explanations on excess capacity in relevant fields. The excess capacity in the manufacturer theory of microeconomics was that no substitution occurred among the elements in non-economy field outside of the ridgeline which is connected by the turning points when the equal-production line began to bend afterward. The excess capacity in modern manufacturer theory and the field of management science was called element congestion phenomena. The excess capacity in accountancy field was expressed as the deposition cost while the same concept was expressed as the assets idleness caused by the decrease of capital fluidity according to the theories on dedicated assets.When studying the problem of the deploy of production resource, the theoretical field of economy generally considered the scarce of resource rather than the no substitution among the elements in non-economy field outside of the ridgeline which is connected by the turning points when the equal-production line began to bend afterward. The theoretical and practical researches on the field mentioned above are rarely studied, therefore, the researches in this paper aimed at these theoretical problems and are meaningful in theory and practice.According to the researches of current situation at home and abroad, the results of this paper showed that, there were multi-faceted reasons leading to excess capacity, however, the periodic fluctuations characteristics showed by excess capacity was caused by the factors hoarding. There are three aspects in this paper:(1) How the hoarding behaviors of manufacturers lead to excess capacity.(2) What problems will appear because of the excess capacity caused by hoarding effects and which kind of conduction effect will happen.(3) What fluctuation characteristics will appear as far as excess capacity is considered.The problems solved in this paper include the followings:(1) The formation mechanism caused by capacity excess expected by manufacturers under the conditions of macro-economy fluctuations was analyzed using mathematic models.(2) The industrial or regional using level of capacity and the level of excess capacity were calculated according to the detailed date of our country by present quantitative methods which were used to calculate the use level of capacity excess.(3) The formation mechanism of capacity excess caused by manufacturer expectation under the condition of macro-economy fluctuations was tested using the actual data of our country.(4) Whether the variations of the use level of capacity excess impose conduction influence on investment behaviors.(5) What are the periodic characteristics of industrial excess capacity under the influence of non-consistency characteristics among the industries, and what are the conversion characteristics of the fluctuant paths of industrial excess capacity.(6) The test on the dissymmetrical characteristic of industrial excess capacity. In the second chapter of the paper, the mathematical models caused by capacity excess which was the result of factor hoarding behavior of manufacturers were founded using the randomly and dynamically optimized theoretical implements. The chapter two was the theoretical basis of this paper. The models describe and analyze the excess capacity when the manufacturers expect the future fluctuations and add or cut down the occupation of production factors or reserves under the conditions of requirement fluctuations. The content of this chapter was a primary exploration on the microcosmic behavioral basis of hoarding theory caused by capacity excess.In the third chapter of this paper, we summarized systematically the three commonly used quantitative methods, namely, the peak to peak method, the non-parametric production frontier method and the production function method and lay the foundation of the following testing researches.The conclusions of the mathematical models in chapter two were tested. The industrial data from 30 provinces from 1992 to 2005 were used according to the capacity excess caused by hoarding effect, the sequence of excess capacity in different regions was calculated using non-parametric production frontier method and the sequence was tested using the robust inference of the models of panel data. Using the 28 industrials as the cross sections and the panel data including 1992-2005 samples, we tested the capacity excess caused by hoarding effect under requirement expectations using the dynamic panel data model.In the fifth chapter of this paper, the mathematical models which reflect the influence of the variation of capacity using level on investment behavior was founded using for reference the analysis frame of Abel (1981). The conduction effect of capacity usage on investment behavior was analyzed and tested using the panel data from 28 industrial manufacturing from 1999 to 2006, according to the cointergration theory of panel data.The periodic fluctuation of excess capacity was caused by the behavior of factor hoarding. However, disagreements exist between the capacity fluctuation of industries and the fluctuation of economy cycle, which was caused by the differences among the development of industries and the heterogeneity in replying the economy cycle. In the sixth chapter of this paper, the industrial capacity level was calculated using peak to peak method and the periodic characteristics of capacity using level was analyzed by spectral analysis, using the monthly data of the 28 manufacturing industries from 1999 to 2006. Meanwhile, using the surplus sequence of 10 industries from 1999 to 2006, the Bayesian test of the structural change point of Fluctuations was done, and the conversion characteristics of dynamic fluctuant path of the excess capacity of the ten industries under the influence of excess capacity was analyzed.The using level of industrial capacity showed its periodicity, which is one of the typical truths of the fluctuation of macro-economy. The levels of capital and requirement and the use level of industrial capacity in early stage can influence the use level of industrial capacity. In the seventh chapter of this paper, by using the monthly data of the four industries of China from 1999 to 2006, the model of Markov regime switching model was founded to analyze the influence of the above mentioned factors on capacity use and the unsymmetrical characteristics.
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