A Research Into High-tech Enterprise Investment Decision-making Based On Real Options

This research firstly evaluates traditional decision methods, including NPV method and its expansion,the sensitivity analysis,the decision-tree analysis etc.The traditional methods neglect the optional value within the high-tech investment, while adopt adjusted subjective discount rate,which physically differs from real high-tech investments'characteristics.Basically, this research,aiming at the significant characteristics of high-tech investment such as uncertainty ,non-reversibility,multi-stages and flexible decision,considers that the real option analysis is promoted dramatically in the high-tech investment decision and analyzes systematically the theoretical foundation of the financial option and real option.Then it emphasizes how to make use of the methods of the real option to construct an applicable framework and settlement procedures in the high-tech investment decision,and appraises the original option pricing methods, also compares with their respective applicability.Finally through the empirical analysis on the option pricing model according to the above features,it proposes the idea of enterprise management reform in the real option decision.In options'settlement procedure,model is important, but it's more beneficial for scientific decision-making by constructing a reasonable applicable framework,settlement procedure and holding on the main factor in practice.The paper's outstanding point lies in the settlement procedure for decision-making according to the real option method, which includes the applicable framework of high-tech investment, analyze the model and method in the real option, searches on the acquisition of parameters, then it forms the adjustable idea on the formula for high-tech investment and application.As to the model's construction, the author set out from the previous studies,analyzes real option pricing in high-tech investment decision that mainly adopted binomial-tree model, then builds a single high-tech investment option and compound real option, also designs the option calculation model based on EXCEL program, all of these mainly adopting binomial-tree model, which is used by the high-tech enterprises to do the empirical analysis on the patented technology investment decisions,the decision-making of future increasing opportunities, abandonment decision and multi-stage compound option in venture investment,etc.Further,the writer expands the model on the real assets'value in their continuous forms,applies dynamic programming & contingent claims approach to calculate,accordingly makes the empirical analysis on the optimal decision and factor influences,which supports some alternative paths to deal with real options in high-tech investment decision.Facing the uncertainty in the future , the acquisitions of the high-tech investment's option decision requires the enterprises to have the unique management mode in decision-making and executive process.Making a lot of analyses for the suitable ideas to rebuild the management capacity and team design,the author constructs a high-tech enterprise management model and designs a strategic management framework using the flexible decision.