Study On Valuation Method Of Mining Investment Based On The Option Pricing Theory Under Uncertainty

The study which studies the theory and approach of the uncertainty of the nature was known as the uncertainty math.All are the concept of uncertainty such as the fuzzy concept,the concept of gray,the concept of random and the concept attributes. The theory of real options excels in the study of uncertainty.The investment projects of Uncertainty often involve a number of factors,many of which can not study in quantitative research,but only in qualitative research.The evaluation of mining investment was affected by the uncertainties such as the economic,the technical and policy factor.The evaluation of investment projects is an important basis for decision-making one.Accurate and comprehensive evaluation of investment projects what is an important task of the feasibility study of the project,even the decision-making phase of the whole construction project investment.The traditional discounted cash flow method ignored the influence to the evaluation of the projects of the mining investment engineering,and did not have in mind the value currently facing of the investment opportunities and the flexibility to operate the project(which can all collectively referred to as the right to choose),when valued the projects of the mining investment engineering.This study subject systematic analysis the value of mineral resources and the problem of mineral resources investment evaluation,at the same time,establishes the mining investment evaluation model and simulates and predicts the parameters of the model,and discusses fully the application on the model, which was on the basis of Western economic theory and through the use of financial mathematics and theoretical,and through the application of the theory of the value of mineral resources,real option pricing theory,the theory of random process,and Combined with numerical analysis and simulation,economic forecasting and decision-making methods and empirical analysis.It studied on the properties of mineral resources and the value of a systematic, and studied in detail the characteristics of investment in mining and 10 categories of the impact of mining investment in the evaluation in the paper.And it analyses and researched the evaluation methods of the China's traditional mining investment.And it introduced in details the real option theory and which application in the mining investment project evaluation.Papers analysis focus on the uncertainties of mining investment evaluation,and summed up these uncertainties as three categories,i.e.,in the economic,technical and political.Research focused on the mathematical simulation of a variety of uncertainties,especially the random fluctuations in the prices of mineral.It established a short-term price of minerals and long-term equilibrium price path and studied their mode of operation and the random characteristics of minerals based on options pricing theory and the theory of random process.It studied the mineral form of short-run and long-term patterns of operation through the application of Monte Carlo simulation,and forecasted the price of the minerals through the use of seasonal price index.Papers also carried out a qualitative analysis and mathematical modeling on the technical and political uncertainties.Papers analyzed the management flexibility and value of mining engineering, and set up the model of value of a developed mine,value of an undeveloped mine and value of an exploration project under the conditions of uncertainty with the theory of real option,and worked out the solution of model above-mentioned through three numerical methods,i.e.the Fig Tree,finite difference approximation and Monte Carlo simulation.At the same time,the paper's findings were to prove through example.