Based On Real Options Theory Of Asset Evaluation Study

With the economy of our country develop constantly, the affect of the market' s uncertainty on the result of project value appraisal are more and more obvious. The paper mainly discusses the appraisal of the mining titles value. At present, the common approach is the Discounted Cash Flow in our country. The Discounted Cash Flow has some deficiency when appraisaling the value of mining titles, it does not take the effect of uncertainty into consideration. In order to appraise the mining titles value more reasonably and efficiently, we need to explore a new appraisal approach.As an approach to deal with the flexibility of investment decision, real option has been applied to the value appraisal of some assets which with more obvious uncertain characteristic gradually over the recent 20 years. The natural resources value appraisal is the early field that implement it. The investors obtain the right of mining corresponding mineral resource through the payment for mining titles, and within time that the mining license stipulates, they have rights to decide the time enterprises exploit the mineral resources according to uncertain factors such as the market situation and enterprise's operation, etc. The flexibility reflects the option characteristic of the mining titles, so it is a feasible choice to use the real option theory to appraise mining titles value.The structure of this paper is as follows:Chapter one is the exordium. It introduces the research goal and significance as well as research content and approach.Chapter two introduces the basic concepts, approach of assets appraisal and mining right appraisal.Chapter three introduces the concept, type, basic parameter of the option and theoretical foundation and model of option pricing as well as the real option and the compound option.Chapter four compares the DCF and approach of real option price modelfirstly, and put forward solving model with expire date of the option as a time parameter. The chapter appraise the mining titles value with DCF, and uses single factor sensitivity analysis method on the mining titles analysis, and deduces that the mineral price is the most sensible factor, meanwhile, it uses mean-reverting progress and the Mnote Carlo Simulation approach to forecast the fluctuate rate of the mineral price. At last, it uses the approach of real option appraise the mining titles. Through calculating the real example, it can be conclude that the value calculated by the approach of real option is far larger than that calculated by the approach of DCF.Chapter five is the conclusion and prospect , using real option approach to calculate mining titles is reasonable and feasible and can reflect the option characteristic better. Moreover, there still are some difficulties on selecting the parameters, it need deeper study.The paper can provide a new approach for the mining titles value appraisal in the future.