| In 2007, the world's largest financial countries - the U.S. subprime loan crisis erupted shook the global economy. Market volatility caused by the economic panic along the countries with the financial ties between the United States spread. From February 13, 2007 loan crisis at the surface, and in October 2008, the world no matter if the European Union, Japan or other developed countries such as China and other emerging market countries are affected by the crisis and to take appropriate measures to rescue. But lost, the efforts failed to stop the pace of economic recession. To early 2009, under economic pressure to change the current voice of the international monetary system has become. At this point, fully embodies the devastating crisis. In this context, the financial stability of the country from the 1997 Asian financial crisis subsided after a few years, people re-entering the field of vision. In particular, the economic development of the world's reserve forces of the country's financial stability of emerging markets research more important practical and theoretical significance. In this paper, the development of emerging market countries, cases associated with the classical theory, the use of emerging market countries within the horizontal comparison and Empirical Analysis, with the exception of the first literature review chapter, the papers from the five sections of the main emerging market countries on the issue of proof of financial stability.The second section of the article, mainly from emerging market countries, financial liberalization started after the specific performance, in light of the major emerging market countries, liberalization of the case and sub-loan crisis of the major emerging countries in crisis performance analysis in the context of financial liberalization the existence of its own financial vulnerability. In theory, the academic for the emerging markets crisis has long been discussed many related and form a more mature model of three generations of the financial crisis. Krugman such as the "model of rational attacks," explained the currency crisis during 1970-80; Obstfeld(1994) in Barrow Gordon normative and policy options based on the perfect model of a second generation currency crisis model, the more successful explanation of the outbreak of the 1992-1993 crisis in the European Monetary System, as well as of the 1994-1995 Mexican peso crisis and many other phenomena; Krugman (1997) to establish the risk of moral hazard, such as that of Moses, and Latin America, Wright and Goldman Sachs (Radelet and Sachs, 1998,1998) and Di used to wear Diamond and Dybvig, (1983) bank run model of the analytical framework for the establishment of financial panic model, and subsequently the financial system instability model 1997 -1998 years to explain the Asian financial crisis. Understanding the classical risk model, the article on the concept of financial liberalization and its economic effects for analysis. Found that financial liberalization will have a financial deepening effect, the interest rate effect and the effect of financial stability. And then to Latin America and Asia through major emerging market countries, liberalization of the financial overview of a simple, different countries have taken a different path of liberalization. In reviewing the course of development found in emerging market countries over the existence of financial liberalization when financial liberalization, interest rate risk, financial institutions, as well as access to financial services liberalization, the risks associated with such issues. In the U.S. sub-loan crisis, the various emerging market countries do not hate the ideal performance. Emerging markets in Asia as an example, the emergence of an economic recession, stock and foreign exchange markets liquidity shocks and Kim and so on, and as South Korea, and even appeared in the international arena, "South Korea will become Asia's version of Iceland" remarks. Through the above analysis we can see that as a result of internal factors in emerging market countries, their own course of development in the financial existence of a considerable degree of financial vulnerability.In this paper, mainly from the capital account openness, exchange rate regime choice and the crisis in three areas, such as conductivity of the emerging market countries to undertake a study of financial stability. Therefore, the third chapter in the article demonstrated that the major emerging market countries with open capital account the relationship between financial stability. Open capital account in the clarity of the concept and its measurement methods, this article briefly reviewed the emerging market countries, capital account opening process, on the basis of their characteristics and problems into carding. Overall, the world's major emerging countries have been full during the 1950-60 era of capital regulation 1970-80's era of relaxed capital controls since the 1990s, as well as universal era of accelerated capital account. The paper found that capital account liberalization, the emerging market countries, the prevalence of decreased stability of the financial system, the deterioration of the efficiency of resource allocation, the loss of part of macroeconomic policy independence as well as the impact on domestic industries, such as the nation a few questions. Therefore, following the opening of capital accounts in emerging markets under the risk analysis. First of all, an open capital account in domestic demand caused by more easily induced by short-term international investment capital inflows, resulting in overheating of the economy and generate inflationary pressures and real exchange rate appreciation and current account deficits and so on. If the emerging countries with floating exchange rate system, due to excessive debt may lead to currency devaluation and price adjustments arising from foreign trade flows and changes. If a fixed exchange rate system may be due to external imbalances, leading to loss of public confidence and cause currency depreciation is expected to increase financial instability. Second, under an open capital account may lead to the banking industry caused by the non-rational operations and the bank staff adverse selection and moral hazard, there by loans and ultra phenomenon will ultimately affect the country's economic development in emerging markets, increasing volatility in financial markets . Finally, the emerging market countries, capital account opening of international speculative capital in the world financial markets migration, the international credit flows to more uncontrollable. Is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, international speculative capital will hamper the speculative nature of the host country of monetary policy formulation and implementation. Second, speculative international speculative capital to the flow direction of the host country often associated with the opposite goal of monetary policy. Next, this article from the Chilean experience, opening up the capital account, from a historical perspective on the emerging market for capital account openness described and concluded. Chile is the emerging market countries, opening up the capital account of a more successful, this challenge to its own opening-up strategy of timely co-ordinated. Based on this, in the article, the use of panel data model of the final to Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea as an example, empirical analysis. The study found that the overall trend from these countries in the sample with the capital account during the opening level, the countries of the foreign exchange market pressure index also improved, reflected from the side in such circumstances the possibility of a currency crisis more Great. Countries and external balance and domestic financial conditions based on the spontaneous level of the crisis. Article, an analysis of the fourth chapter of the main emerging market countries, exchange rate regime choice and the relationship between financial stability. Adjust the exchange rate is tied to a variety of macro and micro economic factors, the core economic variables, which affects the national economy and external balance. Therefore, the exchange rate system has been in a long time to focus on academics. IMF, Frankel (1999), Levy-Yeyafi and Sturzenegger(2003,2005), Bubula and Otker-Robe(2002), as well as Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), such as the existing exchange rate system were classified, according to the international community to the economic development of the situation in response to changing conditions of the exchange rate regime choice. in the fixed exchange rate system floating exchange rate system and the constant debate in recent years, exchange rate system and new developments. such as "original sin" and the middle of the system on the middle hole on the theory and fear of floating. emerging market countries in the choice of exchange rate system had been trying for a with a view to the exchange rate in a safety system after the completion of the economic advantages of growth. However, the prevalence of emerging market countries, the phenomenon of currency mismatch in the financial system to its rise to a number of adverse shocks. currency mismatch has become the norm, and emerging market countries financial stability and economic development pose a threat. regardless of the 1994-1995 Mexican peso crisis of 1997-98 or the Asian financial crisis, there are several countries with the currency mismatch problem can not be off the relationship. Overall, because of the emerging foreign exchange markets developed derivatives market, high market concentration, while for the formation of transparent and effective market mechanisms, resulting in its currency weak to deal with the problem of mismatch. from Latin America, Asia and emerging markets change the course of the exchange rate system, the all more or less gone through some twists and turns, and chose not to choose the path of the exchange rate. to emerging market countries in Latin America change the course of the exchange rate system as an example, the Latin American countries peg the exchange rate from the middle of this exchange rate system, floating exchange rate system to the U.S. dollar of try respectively. in the system selection process, the Latin American countries are more biased in favor of a fixed exchange rate system. In this connection, article for the choice of exchange rate system to the failure of the Thai exchange rate system reform and the relative success of Chile's exchange rate system reform, for example, their empirical analysis. The article found that the exchange rate regime choice conversion time is very important, and to hold the pace, adhering to the stability of the gradual exit strategy, but also pay attention to the level of capital account opening and financial supervision and the level of coordination, but also to establish the soundness of the banking system in order to successfully resolve financial risks and prevent financial crises. In this chapter the final model for the establishment of a small emerging market countries on the choice of empirical exchange rate system. The empirical results show that, when emerging market countries have adopted a floating exchange rate system, will increase pressure on its financial stability . and exchange-rate appreciation and domestic inflation will tend to increase the financial stability of the corresponding pressure. Therefore, the emerging market countries in exchange rate regime choice of conversion to a relatively cautious strategy.Article, an analysis of the fifth chapter of an open economy under the conditions of the emerging markets crisis transmission mechanism. In general, the financial crisis, usually rely on the overflow of trade and financial spillovers, the net transmission of blast effects and transmission effects. In this connection, the article from the internal crisis in emerging market countries and developed countries, the crisis transmission mechanism to the emerging markets of the mechanism of conduction on two fronts. From the internal conditions in emerging markets, the financial system and the existence of endogenous vulnerability. Such as currency volatility, the volatility of financial asset prices and emerging market countries, the lack of maturity of the prevalence of effective market mechanisms. In addition, the financial markets in emerging market countries in the development process is full of uncertainties. On the one hand, modern financial markets are relatively free and open competitive market model, so there will be new participants into the continuous one. On the other hand, financial markets, policy makers are also policy instruments regulating the economy through the development of an important channel for policy-making led to changes in the financial system and the possible uncertainty in the external market. At the same time, emerging market countries in the 1980s accelerated after the financial liberalization process. Capital prices, exchange rates, banking operations, financial institutions, such as access and reduce capital flows in emerging market institutional constraints. In this way, as soon as the information technology and the combination of financial liberalization, the already chaotic cross-border movement of factors of production, the rapid emergence of the nature of the flow. Once this cross-border capital flows on a country's economy have a negative impact, while financial liberalization will increase the onset of their infectious and easy. Is targeted at the following financial crisis in Southeast Asia and sub-loan crisis of the crisis in the analysis of transmission mechanism. In the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the crisis in Southeast Asian countries, primarily through closer economic ties between the sexual, from the way the exchange rate and trade, international investment channels, the convergence of industrial structure, as well as Southeast Asian countries on the way home the conduct of regional economic integration spread. U.S. sub-loan crisis of the spread of the mechanism with the different crises in Southeast Asia. From the United States, its crisis in the credit market from conduction through the capital market, capital market to the credit market, and finally the transition from financial markets to the real economy. Fundamental analysis, sub-loan crisis is rooted in conduction between the countries in the world rely on close contact of the finance. First, the global crisis caused by lack of liquidity. Second, the Federal Reserve to rescue the market behavior is expected of the world's currency devaluation. Third, countries such as Iceland bankruptcy of non-performing emerging markets have a lack of confidence. Fourth, the modern international economy closely linked. Primarily through more than four channels, the completion of sub-loan crisis from the United States to the emerging market countries, as well as the spread of the world.The article is the sixth chapter of the development of China's financial system to carry out an overview of the situation and put forward the future development strategy. First of all, recalling the opening up of China's capital account and exchange rate system the process of evolution. From the founding date, the pace of financial liberalization in China has been relatively healthy manner. In the financial stability of this article on China and other emerging market countries have been analyzed. From the financial markets, external financing, banking stability analysis of several aspects found in the financial market in China as well as financial stability compared with other countries, there are some more or less inadequate. In full knowledge of the basic financial developments in China, the article on China's capital account openness and exchange rate regime choice of both an analysis of existing problems, and on the future development of appropriate countermeasures, and strategic vision. China's current financial condition, capital controls, as well as policy instruments such as foreign capital flows, development, also is not enough to increase the pace of capital account openness. In addition, China is facing pressure from the trade, monetary policy failure, currency mismatch, as well as lower the RMB exchange rate mechanism of market-oriented exchange rate system has constrained the development of the future. In this regard, China should steadily open capital accounts, opening up the process of reasonable arrangement to create a comprehensive monitoring and crisis early warning system, at the same time strengthening its support system reform. In order to ensure that an open capital account in a safe, healthy environment carried out smoothly. China's exchange rate system from the status quo analysis, in the short term China should maintain its existing exchange rate system in the same circumstances, improve the foreign exchange market, determine a reasonable rate of exchange rate fluctuations, and timely regulation of the proportion of a basket of currencies, to maximize the process of market exchange rates. In the long term, the exchange rate system currently in force in the RMB exchange rate regime is a transitional form. Ultimately, the realization of China's floating exchange rate system to a smooth transition. |
PDF Full Text Request