Models And Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Energy And Economy In China

As the driving force of economic development,energy plays a vital important role in economic development.Since China's reform and opening up,the rapid economic development attract worldwide attention.Along with rapid economic development, China's energy consumption has a substantial growth.Energy shortage has become a bottleneck issue to further economic development in China.At the same time,the environmental pollution caused by the energy consumption is also getting to the limits of the environment.Under this background,the research of the relationship between energy and the economy as well as the analysis of the main factors of energy efficiency is the key to China's energy-saving and emission reduction.In this dissertation,based on modem econometric techniques and economic theory,the relationship China's energy and economy as well as the main factors of energy efficiency are system studied which not only has great theoretical significance but also has very important policy implications.The main research objects and resuls are:1.Cointegration technique is applied to research the he relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.The estimation results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are co-integrated.Based on error correction model (ECM) Granger causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was tested.The estimation results indicate that there is Granger causality running from energy consumption to economic growth in short-term and Granger causality running from economic growth to energy consumption in long-term.The relationships of H-P filtered time-series data are analyzed.The results show that the cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is influenced by the comovement of economic growth and energy consumption.2.Baesd on LMDI decomposition model,the factors of production energy intensity and industry energy intensity are studied.The research indicates that the accumulated technological effect has main effect on production energy intensity and industry energy intensity changes.The ccumulated industrial structure effect yields a relatively larger share of production energy intensity changes,which can not be ignored.The further analysis of technological effect show that the top 10 high-energy-consuming sub-sectors technological effect is the main contributors in the decline of production energy intensity and industry energy intensity.The results give us direction for energy-saving and emission reduction policy in China. 3.Using econometric methods,the relationship between coal price and coal demand as well as oil price and oil demand are studied respectively.The results indicate that coal prices rise can curb demand for coal and oil prices rise has slightly impact on oil demand.4.The main factors of China's energy demand are analyzed and China's energy price indices are constructed.Based on this,the long-run equilibrium relationship among China's energy demand,economic growth,energy prices,and industrial structure is studied.According to the future trend of different variables,the future energy demand in China is forecasted.The results indicate that China's future energy demand will increase sharply.Finally,based on regional economics,the allocation effects of energy consumption, electricity consumption and CO₂ emissions among provinces are analyzed.The research results indicated that the allocation of energy consumption,electricity consumption and CO₂ emissions not only is inconsistent with the principle of efficiency,but also is inconsistent with the principle of fairness.The energy-saving,electricity-saving potential,CO₂ emission reduction potential are studied respectively.The factors of China's energy intensity and the CO₂ emission intensity are researched and the corresponding policy recommendations are given.