Study On Forcast Ofchina's Energy Demand Based On Multiple Perspectives

As the driving force of economic development, energy plays an extremely important role in economic development. Since China's reform and opening up, the rapid eonomic development attracts worldwide attention. Along with rapid economic development, China's energy consumption increases substantially. Energy shortage will become the bottleneek of further eeonomic development in China. At the same time, the environmental pollution caused by the energy consumption is also getting to the limits of environmental carrying capacity. Under this background, the research of the relationship between energy and the economy as well as the analysis of the main faetors which affect the energy demand, is the key to China's energy-saving and emission reduction. Based on technical progress, economic growth and industrial structure, we predict energy demand of our country.The combinations of theoretic and practical research, integration of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, econometric models, and Economical Cybernetics are used in the presentation. Cointegrationt technique is applied to research the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The estimation results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are co-integrated. Based on error correction model (ECM) Granger causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested. The main factors of China's energy demand are analyzed and identified. The research on dynamic relationship between energy demand and main factors indicates that energy demand is greatly affected by economic growth, technical progress and industrial structure. We establish the long-term stability relation between energy demand and economic growth, technical progress, industrial structure, using cointegration theory. According to the future trend of different variables, the future energy demand in China is forecasted. The results indicate that China's future energy demand will increase sharply. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations are given.